AOS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AOS Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $0.99 MEDIUM
AOS Report Net sales (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$985M vs. cons $990M MEDIUM
AOS Report North America segment margin (Q2'26) MISS pred ~23.0% vs. cons ~24.0% LOW
AOS Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS guide UNCHANGED guide reaffirmed ~$3.70-4.00 (mid $3.85) vs. cons $3.78 (FY2026) MEDIUM
AOS Guide FY2026 sales growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~+2% to +4% vs. cons ~+2.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AOS Guide China strategic assessment / Rest-of-World outlook UNKNOWN China Q2 guided ~-15% QoQ, 35-40% decrementals vs. cons implied ~-10% (Q2/H2'26); any partnership decision is the swing catalyst LOW
AOS Guide North America price-increase realization (H2 margin recovery) BETTER 4-7% water heater/boiler price hikes (mid-May) flowing to ~24-25% NA margin in H2 vs. cons ~24% (H2'26) LOW
AOS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% LOW
AOS Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (STABILIZE) Beaten-down, reset name that already bounced ~9% into the print (58.8 on 7/21 to 64 on 7/28, then back to 62.2). A modest trough-quarter beat plus a reaffirmed FY guide should be a relief, but the pre-print run-up caps upside and invites some profit-taking. Out-period math is roughly neutral: an in-line-to-slight beat doesn't force upward revisions, and the implicit H2 back-half-loaded guide (needing price realization + China stabilization) keeps estimates from rising much. If China clarity comes, modest follow-through; absent a third guidance cut, the stock stabilizes rather than trends. A renewed trim is the key downside risk given two prior cuts. LOW