| AOS |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.95 vs. cons $0.98 |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Report |
Total Net Sales (Revenue) |
MISS |
pred ~$960M vs. cons $980M |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Report |
North America Segment Margin |
MISS |
pred ~21.5% vs. cons ~23.0% |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~$3.75 vs. cons $3.85 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Guide |
FY2026 Net Sales Growth Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3% vs. cons ~3% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| AOS |
Guide |
China/Rest of World Sales Outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~-10% vs. cons ~-5% (2H 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Guide |
China Strategic Review Timeline/Clarity |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~no firm update vs. cons expects update ~1 update (Q3-Q4 2026) |
LOW |
| AOS |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow/Buyback Target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$200M vs. cons $200M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Q2 headline softness (weak China -15% QoQ, NA cost/price timing lag) was largely pre-announced at Q1, so the real swing factor is out-period math: any incremental FY26 guide trim, unresolved China strategic-review timeline, and read-through from Lennox's fresh 'no recovery until 2027' residential HVAC warning (issued the day before AOS reports) should pressure sell-side 2H26/FY27 estimates further, mirroring the multi-week fade seen after the Q1 print (stock kept sliding ~14% over the following weeks on cut guidance). Absent a clean beat-and-raise with concrete China clarity, negative revisions likely extend the post-print decline rather than stabilize it. |
MEDIUM |