{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.95 vs. cons $0.98",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Net Sales (Revenue)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$960M vs. cons $980M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "North America Segment Margin",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~21.5% vs. cons ~23.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.75 vs. cons $3.85 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Sales Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3% vs. cons ~3% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "China/Rest of World Sales Outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-10% vs. cons ~-5% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "China Strategic Review Timeline/Clarity",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~no firm update vs. cons expects update ~1 update (Q3-Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow/Buyback Target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$200M vs. cons $200M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 headline softness (weak China -15% QoQ, NA cost/price timing lag) was largely pre-announced at Q1, so the real swing factor is out-period math: any incremental FY26 guide trim, unresolved China strategic-review timeline, and read-through from Lennox's fresh 'no recovery until 2027' residential HVAC warning (issued the day before AOS reports) should pressure sell-side 2H26/FY27 estimates further, mirroring the multi-week fade seen after the Q1 print (stock kept sliding ~14% over the following weeks on cut guidance). Absent a clean beat-and-raise with concrete China clarity, negative revisions likely extend the post-print decline rather than stabilize it.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}