APD Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APD Report Adjusted EPS (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$3.38 vs. cons $3.34 MEDIUM
APD Report Revenue (Q3 FY26) IN-LINE pred ~$3.19B vs. cons $3.202B MEDIUM
APD Report Adjusted operating margin (Q3 FY26) MISS pred ~23.2% vs. cons ~23.8% LOW
APD Guide FY26 adjusted EPS guidance range LOWER guide ~$13.00-$13.15 (mid $13.08) vs. cons $13.12 (FY26) MEDIUM
APD Guide Q4 FY26 implied EPS growth/deceleration commentary LOWER guide ~low-single-digit (2-4%) y/y growth vs. cons ~6-7% y/y (Q4 FY26) MEDIUM
APD Guide FY26 capital expenditure guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$4.0B vs. cons ~$4.0B (FY26) MEDIUM
APD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.6% MEDIUM
APD Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.4% (FADE) Core EPS/revenue likely near-inline-to-modest-beat, but the LCEC charge is already priced in and won't drive a pop; the real swing factor is out-period math: management flagged Q4 deceleration back in Q2, and the unresolved Qatar/Hormuz helium disruption plus Casa Grande/LCEC exit reduce the growth backlog optionality analysts had modeled. Expect sell-side to trim FY26 exit-rate and FY27 numbers even if Q3 headline beats, causing a fade as estimate revisions catch down to the widened helium drag and slower reinvestment ramp in electronics/aerospace. MEDIUM