ARE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARE Guide FFO per share (adjusted), Q2 2026 LOWER guide ~$ Company Company6. Company0 vs. cons ~$6.35 (F Y2026) MEDIUM
ARE Guide F026Y year-end occupancy guide LOWER guide midpoint ~86.5% ( maintained) vs. cons ~86.8% (FY2026) LOW
ARE Guide 2026 dispositions/JV completions UNKNOWN pred ~$0.9-1.3B closed/hard vs. $2.9B target (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
ARE Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FADE) Even an in-line FFO and held $6.40 guide carry a built-in declining trajectory (Q4 midpoint ~$1.45) plus an explicitly soft Q2 occupancy print; out-period math and the looming 2027 expiration cliff (~1.5M SF, ~$97M ARR) keep estimate revisions biased down. Any disposition slippage vs. the ~August-weighted $2.9B target confirms the 'no trough for years' bear thesis. A relief pop on a held guide/dividend tends to fade absent hard, de-levering closings. LOW