ARE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARE Report FFO/share (Q2'26) MISS pred ~$1.62 vs. cons $1.65 MEDIUM
ARE Report Total Revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$647M vs. cons $649M MEDIUM
ARE Report Same-Store Cash NOI YoY (Q2'26) MISS pred ~-19.5% vs. cons -18.0% MEDIUM
ARE Guide FY2026 FFO/share guidance LOWER guide ~$6.30-$6.45 (mid $6.35) vs. cons $6.41 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARE Guide Year-end 2026 leverage (net debt/EBITDA) target UNCHANGED guide ~6.0x vs. cons 5.6x-6.2x range (4Q26) MEDIUM
ARE Guide 2026 disposition/JV proceeds target UNCHANGED guide ~$2.9B midpoint vs. cons $2.9B (FY2026) LOW
ARE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
ARE Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2 occupancy/NOI weakness was largely pre-telegraphed, but confirmation of a slight FFO miss, a growing tenant wind-down reserve ($25-30M and rising), and a trimmed/narrowed FY26 FFO guide implies analysts push out the occupancy trough and cut 2H26/2027 NOI and FFO estimates further, extending the negative reaction over the week rather than a snap-back, especially if disposition timing (already pushed to August) shows further slippage. MEDIUM