| ARES |
Report |
After-tax Realized Income / share (EPS) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.24 vs. cons $1.30 |
MEDIUM |
| ARES |
Report |
Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$478M vs. cons ~$480M |
MEDIUM |
| ARES |
Report |
Fee-paying AUM (FPAUM) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$414B vs. cons $417B |
MEDIUM |
| ARES |
Guide |
FY2026 FRE growth target |
UNCHANGED |
guide 16-20% reaffirmed vs. cons ~18% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ARES |
Guide |
FY2026 realized income growth / EPS |
UNCHANGED |
guide 20-25% RI growth vs. cons +25.8% to $5.99 (FY2026); downside risk |
LOW |
| ARES |
Guide |
Q2 2026 dividend / share |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.35 (Q2 2026) |
HIGH |
| ARES |
Guide |
2028 wealth fundraising target (retail flow credibility) |
UNCHANGED |
reaffirm $125B vs. prior $125B (2028 target) |
MEDIUM |
| ARES |
Guide |
Leonard Green M&A / PE platform expansion |
UNKNOWN |
potential deal ~4x current Ares PE AUM vs. cons $0 modeled (unannounced) |
LOW |
| ARES |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| ARES |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A slight headline RI/EPS miss (pred ~$1.24 vs cons $1.30, consistent with Ares missing 3 of last 4 and the ~1% pre-print estimate cut) plus soft realizations/deployment triggers modest FY estimate trims that pull out-period numbers down even though FRE/fees hold. The fresh ARCC Q2 miss and non-accrual uptick (2.1%->2.4%) keeps the private-credit fear alive, and the unquantified Leonard Green dilution/identity overhang caps any washed-out relief bounce — so the negative day-1 residual carries lower over 5 days rather than mean-reverting on the low bar. |
LOW |