{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "After-tax Realized Income / share (EPS)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.24 vs. cons $1.30",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-Related Earnings (FRE)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$478M vs. cons ~$480M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-paying AUM (FPAUM)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$414B vs. cons $417B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FRE growth target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 16-20% reaffirmed vs. cons ~18% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 realized income growth / EPS",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 20-25% RI growth vs. cons +25.8% to $5.99 (FY2026); downside risk",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 dividend / share",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.35 (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2028 wealth fundraising target (retail flow credibility)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "reaffirm $125B vs. prior $125B (2028 target)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Leonard Green M&A / PE platform expansion",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "potential deal ~4x current Ares PE AUM vs. cons $0 modeled (unannounced)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A slight headline RI/EPS miss (pred ~$1.24 vs cons $1.30, consistent with Ares missing 3 of last 4 and the ~1% pre-print estimate cut) plus soft realizations/deployment triggers modest FY estimate trims that pull out-period numbers down even though FRE/fees hold. The fresh ARCC Q2 miss and non-accrual uptick (2.1%->2.4%) keeps the private-credit fear alive, and the unquantified Leonard Green dilution/identity overhang caps any washed-out relief bounce \u2014 so the negative day-1 residual carries lower over 5 days rather than mean-reverting on the low bar.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}