ARES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARES Report After-tax realized EPS BEAT pred ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.30 MEDIUM
ARES Report Fee-related earnings BEAT pred ~$495M vs. cons $487M MEDIUM
ARES Report Management fees BEAT pred ~$1.092B vs. cons $1.080B LOW
ARES Guide Fee-related earnings growth BETTER guide ~20% vs. cons 19% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARES Guide Fee-related earnings margin expansion BETTER guide ~140 bps vs. cons 125 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
ARES Return 5-day cumulative residual +4.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Above-consensus management fees and FRE, plus FY2026 growth of ~20% versus consensus of 19%, should lift FY2026-FY2027 estimates; limited deployment acceleration and wealth-redemption concerns cap the follow-through. LOW