ARES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARES Report Fee-related earnings (FRE) BEAT pred ~$481M vs. cons $474M MEDIUM
ARES Report Fee-paying AUM BEAT pred ~$414B vs. cons $408B MEDIUM
ARES Report After-tax realized income per Class A share MISS pred ~$1.15 vs. cons $1.18 MEDIUM
ARES Guide FY2026 FRE growth UNCHANGED guide ~18% vs. cons 18% (FY2026) HIGH
ARES Guide FY2026 FRE-margin expansion BETTER guide ~125 bps vs. cons 110 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARES Guide FY2026 realized-income growth UNCHANGED guide ~22% vs. cons 22% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ARES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
ARES Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FRE and fee-paying AUM beat, with margin guidance of ~125 bps versus ~110 bps consensus for FY2026, should outweigh the ~$1.15 versus $1.18 realized-income-per-share miss; unchanged ~18% FRE-growth and ~22% realized-income-growth objectives preserve out-period estimates rather than forcing cuts. MEDIUM