{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-related earnings (FRE)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$481M vs. cons $474M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-paying AUM",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$414B vs. cons $408B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "After-tax realized income per Class A share",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.15 vs. cons $1.18",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FRE growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~18% vs. cons 18% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FRE-margin expansion",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~125 bps vs. cons 110 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 realized-income growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~22% vs. cons 22% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FRE and fee-paying AUM beat, with margin guidance of ~125 bps versus ~110 bps consensus for FY2026, should outweigh the ~$1.15 versus $1.18 realized-income-per-share miss; unchanged ~18% FRE-growth and ~22% realized-income-growth objectives preserve out-period estimates rather than forcing cuts.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}