ARES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARES Report After-Tax RI/share (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.28 MEDIUM
ARES Report FRE (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$490M vs. cons $483M MEDIUM
ARES Report FPAUM (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$420B vs. cons $414B MEDIUM
ARES Guide FRE Margin (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~43.0-43.2% vs. cons 42.7% MEDIUM
ARES Guide European Perf. Income (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$350M vs. cons embedded HIGH
ARES Guide Fundraising / Mgmt Fees (FY 2026) BETTER guide record year reaffirmed vs. cons $4.29B MEDIUM
ARES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
ARES Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — sell-side FRE revisions upward + short covering sustains the move; capped by modest beat magnitude and partial pre-pricing from BX/KKR sector sympathy MEDIUM