{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "After-Tax RI/share (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.28",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FRE (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$490M vs. cons $483M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FPAUM (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$420B vs. cons $414B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FRE Margin (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~43.0-43.2% vs. cons 42.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "European Perf. Income (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$350M vs. cons embedded",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fundraising / Mgmt Fees (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide record year reaffirmed vs. cons $4.29B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 sell-side FRE revisions upward + short covering sustains the move; capped by modest beat magnitude and partial pre-pricing from BX/KKR sector sympathy",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}