ARES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ARES Report After-tax FRE/share BEAT pred ~$0.870 vs. cons $0.859 LOW
ARES Report FPAUM IN-LINE pred ~$417.0B vs. cons $414.2B LOW
ARES Report Capital deployment BEAT pred ~$35.0B vs. cons $33.9B LOW
ARES Guide FRE-margin expansion (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide at high end of 0-150 bps vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
ARES Guide European-style realized performance income (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$350M vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
ARES Guide Fundraising (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide as good as/better than 2025 record vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
ARES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
ARES Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — maintained forward targets outweigh a modest operating beat LOW