I'll research AWK (American Water Works) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, earnings, guidance, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and look for more context.Let me get stock price performance and the year-ago Q2 2025 comparison figures.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 figures for the comparison base.Let me check for recent news on the merger and Pennsylvania rate case developments.The Pennsylvania rate case decision (July 16) is highly relevant. Let me read it and the Missouri filing.I have what I need. Let me quickly compute a couple of stock-performance stats before writing.Here is the earnings preview.

American Water Works (AWK) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report expected: After close Wed, July 29, 2026 · Call: Thu, July 30, 2026, 9:00 a.m. ET Price (7/28/26): ~$138 · Fwd yield: ~2.6% · P/E (on ~$6.07 mid): ~23x

The one-sentence setup

This is a "prove the second half" quarter. Management has consistently messaged that the bulk of 2026's 8% EPS growth is back-half loaded, so Q2 itself is unlikely to move the needle — the real story is whether the newly-resolved Pennsylvania rate case and pending New Jersey case lock in the H2 ramp, and whether there's any update on the transformational Essential Utilities merger.

What matters most going in

1. The Pennsylvania rate case is already resolved — and it's a positive

This is the single most important de-risking event since Q1, and it happened two weeks before the print (July 16). The PA PUC approved a ~$74.9 million annual revenue increase for Pennsylvania American Water (its largest state, ~2.5M people served), with new rates expected effective in August. Notably, the Commission and Chairman DeFrank commended the company's role rehabilitating distressed systems (Dimock, receiverships), explicitly recognizing "public benefit" and management performance. Management had flagged on the Q1 call that this case (which did not settle before the April procedural deadline) plus New Jersey were the key H2 revenue drivers, so this outcome materially supports the guidance bridge. Watch how much of the $74.9M is reflected in reaffirmed guidance and the tone on the go-forward relationship with Gov. Shapiro's affordability "Special Counsel" process.

2. Guidance reaffirmation is the number that matters

2026 adjusted EPS guidance: $6.02–$6.12 (representing ~8% growth), affirmed at Q1 along with the 7–9% long-term EPS and dividend CAGR through 2030.
Q1 2026 was $1.01 adjusted (vs. $1.02 a year ago) — essentially flat, exactly as designed, since key rate increases hit in Q3. Do not read Q1/Q2 flatness as weakness.
Comparison base is noisy: Year-ago Q2 2025 GAAP EPS was $1.48, but 2025 results carried ~$0.10/yr of incremental interest income from the now-repaid HOS seller note (repaid Feb 2026), and 2026 numbers now carry Essential merger transaction costs (an add-back to adjusted EPS — $0.02 net in Q1). Focus on adjusted EPS and, ideally, weather-normalized figures. Q2 2025 also had a ~$0.03 unfavorable weather comp.
Bogey: any reaffirmation of $6.02–$6.12 with the PA outcome in hand should read as solid; the risk is if H2 weighting looks too steep relative to a soft Q1+Q2 first half.

3. Essential Utilities (WTRG) merger — the biggest overhang and the biggest swing factor

The stock-for-stock combination (fixed exchange ratio) has weighed on AWK relative to peers (AWK ~ -3% over the past year vs. WTRG ~ +8%). Track the regulatory checklist — approvals are needed in all seven required states: - ✅ Kentucky approved (April) - Virginia and Illinois — statutory decisions expected within the calendar year (VA was flagged for June) - Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Texas, North Carolina — proceeding through summer/early fall - HSR (antitrust) filing planned for late summer - Target close: end of Q1 2027

Any update on VA/IL rulings, PA/NJ progress, and integration/synergy commentary will be closely parsed. This is where the call could generate the most surprise in either direction.

4. Other active rate cases & growth capital

Active general rate cases: Virginia, California, Illinois, New Jersey (intervenor testimony was due June 22; new rates expected "later this fall").
New filings since Q1: Missouri filed a large request July 1 tied to ~$1.6B of investment (rates ~June 2027); Kentucky filed a ~$17.7M request (May).
Total revenue request in the pipeline was ~$518M at Q1. Watch the updated authorized-revenue tally (was $89M YTD authorized at Q1).
Capital plan: ~$3.7B for 2026 ($652M spent in Q1). Any signal on capex acceleration matters for the long-term rate-base growth story.
M&A: ~105,000 connections / ~$565M under agreement. Nexus Water Group (7 of 8 states approved at Q1) was guided to close by June 30 — expect a confirmation. Watch the 2% annual customer-growth target.

5. Financing & the CAMT wildcard

Equity forward: ~$1B was expected to be settled "mid-year" — look for confirmation, and any change to equity needs.
Debt: $700M of 10-yr notes issued April 1 at 5.2%; another long-term issuance planned for Q3/early Q4. Debt/cap was ~58% at Q1.
NJ Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) relief: a ~$84M refund for 2024 plus removal of ~$100M/yr of prior CAMT cash payments is a real cash tailwind. Management said it would fold this into the plan refresh (and evaluate reducing equity needs) — the plan refresh typically comes in the fall, but any early color on lower equity dilution would be a positive.
PFAS: ~$185M of net payments secured from manufacturers to offset remediation/customer costs.

Stock context

AWK has been a relative laggard: roughly -3% over the trailing year while Essential (WTRG) is up ~8%, reflecting merger-dilution/fixed-exchange-ratio concerns and the 2025 rate-backdrop. Shares bottomed near ~$121 in early June and have rebounded ~14% to ~$138 (still ~6% below the ~$147 12-month high), with a nice pop into the print on 7/28. At ~23x the guidance midpoint and a ~2.6% yield, AWK trades at a premium to the group — the market is paying for visibility and the 7–9% EPS/dividend algorithm, which raises the bar for clean execution.

Scorecard for the print / call

Watch item	Bullish	Bearish
FY26 EPS guide	Reaffirm $6.02–$6.12; maybe narrow to upper half	Any hint of pressure / heavy H2 dependence
PA rate case	$74.9M cleanly embedded; constructive Shapiro dialogue	Affordability friction limits future filings
Merger	VA/IL approvals in hand; PA/NJ on track; HSR filed	Slippage, adverse conditions, or divestiture demands
Financing/equity	Equity forward settled; CAMT lowers future equity need	Higher-than-expected equity dilution
Growth	Nexus closed; new deals; 2% customer growth intact	M&A/closing delays
Weather	Warm/dry summer usage upside	Wet-weather demand drag (as in Q2'25)

Bottom line: The quarter's headline EPS is likely a non-event given the deliberate H2 weighting, and the biggest H2 uncertainty (Pennsylvania) has already resolved favorably. The call's real value is in incremental detail on the Essential merger regulatory path, the equity/CAMT financing picture, and confirmation of the growth pipeline (Nexus close, new MO/KY filings). A clean guidance reaffirmation plus tangible merger progress would support the recent rebound; the risk is disappointment on merger timing or heavier equity needs.

Preview based on AWK's Q1 2026 earnings release/call, the July 16 PA PUC decision 8-K, July 1 Missouri filing, the Q2 2025 comparison, and recent price action. All EPS figures are company adjusted (non-GAAP) unless noted. Not investment advice.