BA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BA Report Free cash flow (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~-$0.1B vs. cons ~-$0.4B MEDIUM
BA Report Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$23.4B vs. cons ~$22.9B MEDIUM
BA Report Core EPS (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~-$0.08 vs. cons ~-$0.10 LOW
BA Guide FY2026 free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$1-3B vs. cons ~$1.7B (FY26) MEDIUM
BA Guide 737 MAX production rate BETTER guide 47/mo now, path to 52 vs. cons 47/mo (exiting FY26) MEDIUM
BA Guide MAX 7/10 certification timing BETTER guide cert imminent/2H26, ~1st deliveries 2027 vs. cons ~1H27 (2H26) MEDIUM
BA Guide 787 rate-10 / FY deliveries UNKNOWN guide 8/mo to 10/mo, FY 90-100 vs. cons ~92 (FY26) LOW
BA Guide BDS segment margin UNCHANGED guide ~3.5% vs. cons ~3.4% (FY26) LOW
BA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
BA Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.8% (FADE) A cash/revenue beat with only a reaffirmed (not raised) FY $1-3B FCF guide and much good news (MAX cert, FAA trust, China order) already priced in caps upside; out-period math shows the recovery compounding but not accelerating, so initial pop partially fades on sell-the-news and lingering 787/DOJ-payment/2H-linearity overhang. LOW