The Boeing Company (BA) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company	The Boeing Company
Ticker	BA (NYSE)
Reporting Period	Q2 2026 (quarter ending June 30, 2026)
Earnings Date	July 28, 2026 — 10:30 AM ET
Prepared	July 27, 2026
Sector ETF Benchmark	XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is a modest beat on deliveries and free cash flow, with the single biggest swing factor being whether Q2 737 MAX deliveries confirm the ramp to rate 47 is on track and whether FCF lands in the guided “low hundreds of millions outflow” range.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for Boeing is achievable but not low. Consensus expects roughly 167 commercial deliveries (vs. 143 in Q1), operating EPS of approximately –$0.19, and free cash flow of roughly –$365M — all consistent with management’s own Q2 guidance of a “low hundreds of millions” FCF outflow and sequential delivery improvement. Management’s tone on the Q1 call was notably constructive, characterizing Q1 as a “clean quarter” and reaffirming full-year FCF guidance of positive $1–$3B; at the May 27 Bernstein conference, CEO Ortberg confirmed Boeing had passed the FAA capstone review for rate 47 and was actively running the line at that rate, adding further confidence to the delivery ramp narrative. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable since the Q1 print, with the 2026 FCF consensus holding near $2.5B and the Q2 EPS estimate drifting only marginally, suggesting the Street is largely aligned with guidance rather than pricing in upside. The stock has underperformed both XAR (+3.5%) and the S&P 500 (+3.9%) since the Q1 print, declining roughly 8.5%, driven almost entirely by multiple compression rather than estimate cuts — leaving the setup neither stretched nor deeply discounted. The key wildcard is the F/A-XX Navy fighter downselect, expected in August 2026: a Boeing win would be transformational for the defense segment and could catalyze a meaningful re-rating, while a loss to Northrop Grumman would remove a significant near-term catalyst.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a moderate bar — delivery volume is the primary swing factor, with 167 commercial deliveries expected vs. 143 in Q1. Free cash flow is the most watched metric given the multi-year negative burn; a Q2 outflow better than –$365M consensus would be a positive signal for the full-year $1–$3B FCF target.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI	Q1 2026 Actual	Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)	Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate	YoY Change	Guidance	Consensus vs. Guidance
Revenue ($B)	$22.2B	$22.7B	$24.2B	+6.4%	No specific Q2 guidance; FY2026 ~$97.6B consensus	N/A (no Q2 guidance)
Operating EPS (Core Loss/Share)	–$0.10	–$1.13	–$0.19	Improvement YoY	No specific Q2 EPS guidance	N/A
Free Cash Flow ($B)	–$1.454B	–$0.200B	–$0.365B	Better YoY	Q2 outflow “low hundreds of millions”; FY2026 +$1–$3B	Within guidance range
Commercial Deliveries (#)	143	150	167	+11.3%	~500 for FY2026	On track (167 x 4 ≈ 668 vs. 500 FY guide)
737 MAX Deliveries (#)	113	102	126	+23.5%	~500 for FY2026 (737 component)	On track
787 Deliveries (#)	15	24	25	+4.2%	90–100 for FY2026	On track
BCA Operating Income ($B)	–$0.563B	–$0.557B	–$0.418B	Improvement YoY	Progressive sequential improvement; positive mid-2027	Tracking guidance
BDS Operating Income ($B)	+$0.233B	+$0.110B	+$0.231B	+110% YoY	~3.5% margin for FY2026	Tracking guidance

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters) — Top 2 KPIs: Commercial Deliveries & Free Cash Flow

Quarter	KPI	Reported	Consensus	Surprise %	Result
Q1 2026	Commercial Deliveries	143	143	0.0%	In-line
Q1 2026	Free Cash Flow	–$1.454B	–$2.803B	+48.1%	Beat
Q4 2025	Commercial Deliveries	160	157	+1.9%	Beat
Q4 2025	Free Cash Flow	+$0.375B	+$0.282B	+33.0%	Beat
Q3 2025	Commercial Deliveries	160	155	+3.2%	Beat
Q3 2025	Free Cash Flow	+$0.238B	–$0.844B	N/M (large beat)	Beat
Q2 2025	Commercial Deliveries	150	144	+4.2%	Beat
Q2 2025	Free Cash Flow	–$0.200B	–$1.903B	N/M (large beat)	Beat
Q1 2025	Commercial Deliveries	130	129	+0.8%	Beat
Q1 2025	Free Cash Flow	–$2.290B	–$3.556B	+35.6%	Beat
Q4 2024	Commercial Deliveries	57	62	–8.1%	Miss
Q4 2024	Free Cash Flow	–$4.098B	–$4.070B	–0.7%	In-line
Q3 2024	Commercial Deliveries	116	116	0.0%	In-line
Q3 2024	Free Cash Flow	–$1.956B	–$4.030B	+51.5%	Beat

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been broadly stable since the Q1 print, with FCF and delivery estimates tracking guidance closely. The most notable revision is the slight upward drift in Q2 delivery estimates (from 163 to 167) following the Bernstein conference confirmation that rate 47 is live, while EPS estimates have drifted marginally more negative, reflecting Spirit integration cost absorption.

KPI (Period)	Estimate at Last Earnings +5 Days (Apr 29, 2026)	Current Consensus (Jul 27, 2026)	Estimate Δ (%)	Initial Guidance (Q1 Call)	Current Guidance	Guidance Δ	Consensus vs. Guidance
Revenue — Q2 2026	$23.75B	$24.15B	+1.7%	No Q2 guidance	No Q2 guidance	N/A	N/A
Revenue — FY2026	$97.57B	$97.64B	+0.1%	No FY guidance	No FY guidance	N/A	N/A
Operating EPS — Q2 2026	–$0.27	–$0.19	+29.6% (less negative)	No Q2 EPS guidance	No Q2 EPS guidance	N/A	N/A
Operating EPS — FY2026	–$0.33	–$0.17	+48.5% (less negative)	No FY EPS guidance	No FY EPS guidance	N/A	N/A
Free Cash Flow — Q2 2026	–$172M	–$365M	–112% (more negative)	“Low hundreds of millions” outflow	Unchanged	Unchanged	Within guidance range
Free Cash Flow — FY2026	$2.576B	$2.455B	–4.7%	+$1B to +$3B	Unchanged	Unchanged	Near midpoint of range
Commercial Deliveries — Q2 2026	163	167	+2.5%	Sequential improvement from Q1’s 143	Unchanged	Unchanged	Consistent with ramp trajectory
Commercial Deliveries — FY2026	664	668	+0.6%	~500 (737 component); total ~650–680	Unchanged	Unchanged	Slightly above midpoint

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print, with the Street largely aligned with management guidance. The slight upward drift in delivery estimates and improvement in EPS estimates reflect growing confidence in the rate 47 ramp, while the FCF estimate revision lower (from –$172M to –$365M) likely reflects more conservative assumptions around DOJ payment timing and Spirit integration cash drag.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: BA has underperformed XAR (+3.5%) and the S&P 500 (+3.9%) by roughly 12–13 percentage points since the Q1 print, with the decline driven almost entirely by multiple compression (EV/EBITDA contracted ~9% over 1 month, ~22% over 3 months) rather than estimate cuts — suggesting sentiment and macro/geopolitical concerns (Iran conflict, tariff uncertainty) are weighing more than fundamentals.

BA vs. XAR vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 22, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Horizon	BA Price Change	EV/EBITDA Change	Latest NTM EV/EBITDA	Commentary
1 Month	–3.0%	–8.8%	27.2x	Multiple compression driving all of the price decline; estimates stable.
3 Months	–9.0%	–21.6%	27.2x	Significant de-rating; stock has given back post-Q1 gains.
6 Months	–16.1%	–13.0%	27.2x	Both multiple and price lower; macro/geopolitical headwinds dominant.
12 Months	–8.5%	–13.1%	27.2x	Full-year underperformance driven by multiple contraction, not estimate cuts.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Stock Performance Decomposition Data.

Key events since Q1 earnings (Apr 22): (1) May 12–13 — stock rallied to ~$240 on China trade deal optimism and 200-aircraft commitment; (2) May 14–19 — sharp pullback to ~$215 as Iran conflict escalation raised demand concerns; (3) July 2–6 — brief rally to ~$235 on FAA ticketing authority restoration; (4) July 13–21 — gradual decline to ~$205 as defense sector rotated and tariff uncertainty weighed. The stock is currently trading at $211.50 (July 28 pre-market), up ~3% from the July 21 trough.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the FAA restoration of ticketing authority for 737 MAX and 787 (July 17), which removes a key operational bottleneck and validates Boeing’s quality improvement narrative heading into the print. The China 200-aircraft commitment is the second most significant catalyst.

July 17, 2026 — FAA Restores Ticketing Authority for 737 MAX & 787: The FAA allowed Boeing to resume final safety inspections (airworthiness certificates) for all 737 MAX and 787 aircraft. Characterized as a “vote of confidence” from the U.S. government. Implication: removes a key delivery bottleneck and validates quality improvement progress; positive for Q2 delivery cadence.
July 16, 2026 — 737 MAX 7 & MAX 10 Certification Progress: Boeing confirmed it is in the “final stages” of anti-ice system fix certification for MAX 7 and MAX 10, with MAX 10 “98% through certification flight testing.” FAA expected to certify MAX 7 in summer 2026. Implication: unlocks delivery of ~30 built MAX 7s and ~9 MAX 10s; meaningful revenue and cash flow catalyst for H2 2026.
May 27, 2026 — Bernstein Conference (CEO Ortberg): Confirmed FAA capstone review for rate 47 passed; line actively running at 47/month. China 200-aircraft commitment expected to convert to firm orders later in 2026. SPEEA labor agreement (16,000 Puget Sound engineers) expires end of summer — flagged as near-term risk. Implication: most comprehensive post-Q1 update; broadly positive on production trajectory.
May 2026 — China 200-Aircraft Commitment: During Trump-Xi trade visit, China committed to 200 narrowbody aircraft — reopening the Chinese market for the first time in nearly a decade. Management characterized this as an “initial tranche with more to follow.” Implication: significant long-term demand signal; near-term cash flow impact from Chinese pre-delivery payments not expected to be material to FY2026 FCF guidance.
July 20–21, 2026 — Farnborough Airshow: CEO Ortberg stated Boeing needs “a couple more years” to repair finances before pursuing a new jet program. GE Aerospace announced 1,000+ engine orders with IndiGo Airlines (737 MAX-powered). Airbus outlined 870 commercial delivery target for 2026 and new A350 freighter first flight. Implication: competitive pressure from Airbus intensifying; Boeing’s new airplane timeline remains distant.
July 13, 2026 — Riyadh Air 787 Option Exercise: Boeing studying potential order from Riyadh Air for 25–30 additional 787 Dreamliners, potentially announced at Farnborough. Implication: positive demand signal for 787 program; supports production ramp to rate 10.
July 20, 2026 — Defense Supply Chain Executive Order: President Trump signed executive order requiring defense contractors to screen supply chains and stop working with certain foreign suppliers (including China). Implication: compliance cost headwind for BDS; also a potential tailwind as domestic defense industrial base investment accelerates.
July 23, 2026 — Lockheed Martin & RTX Q2 Beats: Both defense peers reported strong Q2 results with raised guidance, driven by weapons demand and defense budget tailwinds. LMT backlog hit record $230B; RTX raised 2026 sales guidance to $95–96B. Implication: positive read-through for Boeing’s BDS segment; defense budget environment remains robust.
July 25, 2026 — New Tariff Regime (Section 301): U.S. imposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners under Section 301. Implication: limited direct impact on Boeing (aircraft largely exempt from tariff regimes); indirect risk via airline customer profitability and potential demand softening in affected markets.

7. Peer Commentary Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days — Current Quarter / Forward-Looking Only)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 earnings calls and conferences is broadly positive for Boeing’s setup: GE Aerospace’s 41% Leap engine delivery growth in H1 directly supports 737 MAX production ramp; RTX’s 26% commercial OE sales growth confirms airframer production rates are rising; defense peers (LMT, NOC, RTX) all signal a robust and growing defense budget environment that benefits BDS. The primary risk read-through is GE’s acknowledgment that supply chain constraints remain the binding constraint, not demand.

Note: Only commentary about the current reporting period (Q2 2026) or forward outlook is included below. Peer commentary limited to peers’ own past-quarter results has been excluded.

GE Aerospace — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 16, 2026)

Theme	GE Commentary (Forward / Current Quarter)	BA Read-Through	Signal
737 MAX Engine Supply	Leap engine deliveries up 41% in H1 2026; full-year Leap delivery growth raised to “high teens” from 15% prior. Copa Airlines selected up to 120 Leap 1B engines for 737 MAX fleet.	Directly supports Boeing’s 737 MAX production ramp to rate 47 and beyond. Engine availability is improving, reducing a key bottleneck.	Positive
777X Engine (GE9X)	Wide-body deliveries up 30% in Q2; GE9X volume “up significantly.”	Supports 777X production build-up ahead of 2027 first deliveries.	Positive
Commercial Aftermarket Outlook	Full-year commercial services growth raised to “low 20s” from “mid-teens.” Commercial services backlog at ~$170B, up ~$30B since end of 2024. Double-digit commercial services growth expected to continue into 2027.	Strong aftermarket demand signals high fleet utilization — positive for Boeing Global Services (BGS) commercial aftermarket revenue.	Positive
Leap 1B Durability	Certification for Leap 1B durability kit completed; expected to deliver ~2x improvement in time on wing. Full MRO and new mate cutover expected “early next year” (2027). Leap turnaround times now ~100 days, down 2+ weeks YoY. “Nearly zero grounded fleet-powered aircraft due to engines.”	Improved engine reliability reduces AOG risk for 737 MAX operators; supports airline confidence in the platform and Boeing’s order book.	Positive
Supply Chain Risk (Forward)	“It’s much more supply side challenge than it is demand” for H2 2026 and 2027. Spare parts delinquency grew 20% sequentially in Q2 due to “material availability constraints.”	Persistent supply chain constraints remain the binding risk for Boeing’s production ramp. Material availability issues could delay rate increases above 47.	Negative
NGS / New Aircraft Timing	“We continue to believe that NGS is going to continue to move to the right because the industry needs stability. Our customers want and need stability and supply chain needs and wants stability.”	Validates Boeing’s own messaging that new airplane development is not imminent; current programs (737 MAX, 787) will have extended production runs.	Neutral

RTX Corporation — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 23, 2026)

Theme	RTX Commentary (Forward / Current Quarter)	BA Read-Through	Signal
Airframer Production Ramp	Collins commercial OE sales up 26% in Q2, driven by “higher volume on narrowbody and widebody platforms.” Full-year commercial OE growth raised to “mid to high single digits” from “mid-single digits.” H2 OE growth expected in “8–9% range” as Collins “continues to ramp with airframers.”	Directly confirms Boeing’s 737 MAX and widebody production rates are rising. Collins’ OE ramp is a leading indicator for Boeing delivery volumes.	Positive
Commercial Aftermarket Outlook	Full-year commercial aftermarket growth raised to “low double digits” from “high single digits.” “Passenger air travel remains resilient.” Global RPKs expected to grow in all regions outside Middle East. “Customer behaviors remain unchanged.”	Strong aftermarket demand supports BGS commercial revenue. Resilient air travel demand underpins Boeing’s long-term order book.	Positive
Defense Budget (Forward)	“Bipartisan support for a significant increase in 2027 defense spending.” Base budget request of $1.1T represents ~25% increase YoY. “Meaningful increases in funding for RTX priority programs including Tomahawk, LTMS and Standard Missile.” International defense demand “remains very strong” — Raytheon booked $10B+ international awards in H1, up 2x YoY.	Robust defense budget environment directly benefits Boeing BDS. Strong international demand for missile defense and weapons systems aligns with Boeing’s PAC-3, JDAM, and small diameter bomb programs.	Positive
Supply Chain Investment	RTX investing $100M+ in GTF MRO capacity expansion. Providing suppliers with “seven-year firm orders” as “the single biggest game changer” for capacity investment. “Supply chain continuing to step up and deliver at rates.”	Improving supply chain capacity across aerospace ecosystem supports Boeing’s ability to ramp production. Long-term demand signals from RTX help Boeing’s own suppliers plan capacity.	Positive
Budget / CR Risk	“Everyone’s expectations are we start the year with a [Continuing Resolution].” Budget uncertainty on “amounts and mechanics” acknowledged.	CR risk could delay new BDS program starts and limit production rate increases on some programs. Manageable given Boeing’s existing backlog.	Negative

Lockheed Martin — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 23, 2026)

Theme	LMT Commentary (Forward / Current Quarter)	BA Read-Through	Signal
Defense Budget & Weapons Demand	Raised 2026 guidance: revenue $79.75–81.75B (prior $77.5–80B); EPS ~$30.30 (prior ~$29.80). Backlog hit record $230B, up from $186B at Q1 end. Missiles & Fire Control revenue up ~20% driven by PAC-3 and THAAD ramp. $35B contract to quadruple THAAD interceptor production. CFO: “Defense spending support is bipartisan, with ongoing government spending expected on missiles, missile defense, and manned and unmanned weapons.”	Highly positive for Boeing BDS. Robust defense spending environment supports Boeing’s PAC-3, JDAM, small diameter bomb, F-15EX, and KC-46 programs. Record LMT backlog signals multi-year demand visibility.	Positive
FMS Process Improvement	“FMS cases are being approved at a much more rapid rate. We’re significantly ahead of what we experienced in prior years.”	Faster FMS approvals directly benefit Boeing’s international defense sales (F-15EX, KC-46, P-8 exports), improving revenue recognition and cash flow timing.	Positive
Defense Aftermarket	$1.6B F-35 spare parts award — “largest such contract in F-35 history” — reflecting “Department of War’s heightened focus on keeping the world’s premier fighter fleet operational.”	Strong defense aftermarket demand benefits Boeing Global Services government business. Increased optempo-driven maintenance demand aligns with Boeing’s BGS government segment growth.	Positive
Production Execution Risk	F-16 and C-130 challenges in Q1 required redesign and re-flight testing, causing delivery delays and margin pressure. “We are not done the qualification until we are. There is risk.”	Highlights inherent execution risk in complex aerospace programs. Boeing faces similar risks on 777X certification and MAX 7/10 qualification programs.	Negative

Northrop Grumman — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026)

Theme	NOC Commentary (Forward / Current Quarter)	BA Read-Through	Signal
Defense Budget (FY2027)	“Bipartisan support for defense investment.” House and Senate Armed Services Committees each supported $1.1T base budget for FY2027, up ~10% from FY2026. Administration submitted $67B supplemental request for weapons replenishment and military readiness. $350B reconciliation package under consideration.	Highly positive for Boeing BDS. Multi-year defense budget tailwind supports Boeing’s F-47, KC-46, F-15EX, and weapons programs. Supplemental spending directly benefits Boeing’s weapons systems (JDAM, small diameter bomb).	Positive
International Defense Demand	“Unprecedented levels of defense investment as allies accelerate their modernization efforts.” NATO allies pledged $50B in additional investments. Kuwait authorized for 6 IBS systems; UAE and Qatar letters of request pending. Full-year book-to-bill expected “at least 1.25x.”	Strong international defense demand benefits Boeing’s export programs. NATO spending increases support demand for Boeing’s P-8, F-15EX, and KC-46 internationally.	Positive
National Security Space	National security space projected to grow “high single digits” and generate $7B+ in sales. “Historic increases to the U.S. space budget.” Space-based AMC described as “attractive segment.”	Positive for Boeing’s national security space business (strategic SATCOM, classified work, X-Plane). Golden Dome applicability adds upside optionality.	Positive
F/A-XX Context	NOC is the other finalist for the F/A-XX Navy sixth-generation fighter. Government downselect expected “later this year.” NOC investing in advanced manufacturing and production capacity.	F/A-XX downselect (expected August 2026) is the single biggest near-term binary catalyst for Boeing. A win would be transformational; a loss to NOC removes a major growth driver.	Binary Risk

Airbus — Business Update Call (July 21, 2026)

Theme	Airbus Commentary (Forward / Current Quarter)	BA Read-Through	Signal
Commercial Demand Environment	“Demand is very strong” with “a level of visibility we’ve never had before.” Backlog of 9,200+ commercial aircraft. Market forecast: ~42,000 new aircraft needed by 2045, ~4% CAGR for both new aircraft and services markets.	Strong industry-wide demand validates Boeing’s record $576B commercial backlog. Long-term demand supports Boeing’s production ramp investment thesis.	Positive
Supply Chain Health	Supply chain “now in a much better place” after COVID disruptions. Airbus investing in multi-sourcing and multi-site strategies for critical parts. Near-term A350 bottleneck: “cabin interior supply chain” (galleys, linings).	Improving supply chain health is a positive read-through for Boeing’s own production ramp. Cabin interior bottleneck is a shared industry constraint relevant to Boeing’s 787 seat certification delays.	Positive
Engine Supply Constraint	A320 family ramp to rates 70–75 delayed due to “engine supply, mainly from Pratt & Whitney.” Engine situation expected to “ease up” towards 2028.	Engine supply constraints are an industry-wide issue. While Airbus’s GTF constraint is Pratt-specific, it signals that engine supply remains a systemic bottleneck that could affect Boeing’s own ramp timing.	Negative
Next-Gen Aircraft Timeline	Airbus plans to launch next-gen single-aisle “towards the end of this decade” with entry into service “towards the latter half of the next decade.”	Competitive pressure: Airbus is moving faster on next-gen aircraft than Boeing. Boeing CEO acknowledged needing “a couple more years” before pursuing a new jet. Risk of Boeing falling further behind on product cycle.	Negative

Airline Customer Commentary — United Airlines Q2 2026 (July 15, 2026)

United Airlines reported Q2 EPS of $1.99 (beat vs. $1.85 consensus) and raised full-year EPS guidance to ~$10 midpoint. CEO Scott Kirby: “Demand remains incredibly strong” with Q4 yields booked 14 points higher YoY and corporate demand in July up 30%. Despite a $6B fuel cost headwind, United expects to grow earnings YoY. BA Read-Through: Strong airline demand and profitability support continued aircraft orders and deliveries. United’s fleet expansion plans (including 737 MAX and 787 orders) remain intact. Positive for Boeing’s commercial backlog and delivery pipeline.

Airline Customer Commentary — Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 (July 13, 2026)

Delta reaffirmed full-year profit guidance despite record fuel costs, achieving a 9% operating margin in Q2. CEO Ed Bastian: “The international travel season is very, very healthy.” Airfares remain ~10–15% below inflation-adjusted pre-COVID levels, suggesting pricing power remains. BA Read-Through: Healthy airline profitability and strong demand support Boeing’s commercial delivery pipeline. Delta’s fleet renewal program (including 737 MAX and 787 orders) remains on track.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Only one insider transaction was identified in the last 60 days — a director open-market purchase of $317K in May 2026. This is a modest but directionally positive signal; the absence of insider selling is notable given the stock’s decline from post-Q1 highs.

Name	Title	Transaction Type	Shares	Value	Date	Note
Bradley D. Tilden	Director	Open Market Buy	1,370	~$317K	May 20, 2026	Discretionary open-market purchase; no 10b5-1 plan. Purchased near $231/share, stock now ~$211. Directionally positive signal from a director.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. No open-market sales by executives or directors were identified in the last 60 days. The single director purchase, while modest in size, is a directionally positive signal. The absence of insider selling during a period of stock weakness (BA down ~8.5% since Q1 earnings) suggests insiders are not alarmed by the current price level.

9. Risks & Key Questions for the Q2 Call

737 MAX Rate 47 Stabilization: Has the production line fully stabilized at rate 47, and what is the timeline to rate 52? Any quality escapes or FAA interventions since the Bernstein conference would be a significant negative.
787 Delivery Lumpiness: CEO Ortberg warned of lumpy 787 deliveries due to seat certification delays. If Q2 787 deliveries come in below the ~25 consensus estimate, it could raise concerns about the 90–100 full-year target.
Free Cash Flow Composition: The DOJ payment (assumed H2 2026) and Spirit AeroSystems cash drag (~$1B for FY2026) are key FCF headwinds. Any acceleration of the DOJ payment into Q2 would be a negative surprise.
Spirit AeroSystems Integration: Cost surprises from Spirit’s higher-than-expected cost base have been a recurring theme. Any update on the magnitude of the cash drag or timeline to improvement will be closely watched.
SPEEA Labor Negotiations: The SPEEA contract covering ~16,000 Puget Sound engineers expires in October 2026. Any update on negotiation progress or risk of work stoppage is a key near-term risk.
F/A-XX Downselect Timing: The Navy’s sixth-generation fighter downselect is expected in August 2026. Management may provide color on Boeing’s competitive position. A win would be transformational; a loss would remove a major growth catalyst.
China Order Conversion: The 200-aircraft commitment needs to convert to firm orders via government allocation to individual Chinese airlines. Any update on timing and the process will be closely watched.
777X Certification Progress: Flight test program expected to complete (ex-ETOPS) by year-end 2026. Any delays to the certification timeline or GE9X engine issues would push first deliveries beyond 2027.
BCA Margin Trajectory: Management guided to “progressive sequential improvement” in BCA margins. If Q2 BCA margin does not improve from Q1’s –6.1%, it would raise questions about the path to positive margins in mid-2027.
Tariff & Trade Policy Impact: New Section 301 tariffs on 60 trading partners took effect July 25. Management will likely be asked about any impact on airline customer demand, supply chain costs, and the China order conversion process.