BEN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BEN Report Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$0.73 vs. cons $0.66 MEDIUM
BEN Report Operating revenue (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$2.37B vs. cons $2.27B MEDIUM
BEN Report Adjusted operating margin (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~28.2% vs. cons ~27.3% MEDIUM
BEN Guide Adjusted operating margin (fiscal Q4'26 exit) BETTER guide ~high-29% (~29.5%) vs. cons ~28.5% (FQ4'26) MEDIUM
BEN Guide Effective fee rate (fiscal Q4'26) UNCHANGED guide ~mid-to-high 37bps (~37.5) vs. cons ~37.5bps (FQ4'26) MEDIUM
BEN Guide Alternatives fundraising (FY26) BETTER guide ~>$30B vs. cons ~$28B (FY2026) LOW
BEN Guide Comp & benefits expense (fiscal Q3'26) UNCHANGED guide ~$830M vs. cons ~$835M (FQ3'26) LOW
BEN Guide Long-term net flows (pre-disclosed, FQ3'26) UNKNOWN actual +$18B vs. cons ~+$12B (FQ3'26); Western only -$1B, already public HIGH
BEN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
BEN Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) EPS/revenue/margin likely beat on ~+4-5% higher average AUM (S&P +14.5% in the quarter) plus operating leverage toward the high-29s Q4 margin path, and Western stabilizing at just -$1B removes the biggest overhang. But the AUM/$18B flow beat was already disclosed July 6, so the incremental surprise is only on margins/guide against a stock that has re-rated ~+40% off April lows. Expect a modest positive day-1 pop that fades as out-period estimates barely move (June AUM known, fee-rate mix dilutive) and profit-taking sets in on a full valuation. MEDIUM