{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.73 vs. cons $0.66",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating revenue (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.37B vs. cons $2.27B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~28.2% vs. cons ~27.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin (fiscal Q4'26 exit)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~high-29% (~29.5%) vs. cons ~28.5% (FQ4'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective fee rate (fiscal Q4'26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-to-high 37bps (~37.5) vs. cons ~37.5bps (FQ4'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Alternatives fundraising (FY26)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~>$30B vs. cons ~$28B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Comp & benefits expense (fiscal Q3'26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$830M vs. cons ~$835M (FQ3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Long-term net flows (pre-disclosed, FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "actual +$18B vs. cons ~+$12B (FQ3'26); Western only -$1B, already public",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "EPS/revenue/margin likely beat on ~+4-5% higher average AUM (S&P +14.5% in the quarter) plus operating leverage toward the high-29s Q4 margin path, and Western stabilizing at just -$1B removes the biggest overhang. But the AUM/$18B flow beat was already disclosed July 6, so the incremental surprise is only on margins/guide against a stock that has re-rated ~+40% off April lows. Expect a modest positive day-1 pop that fades as out-period estimates barely move (June AUM known, fee-rate mix dilutive) and profit-taking sets in on a full valuation.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}