I'll research BEN (Franklin Resources / Franklin Templeton) before writing the preview. Let me gather the latest filings, earnings materials, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and check monthly AUM figures plus recent news.Let me get recent news, monthly AUM releases, and stock price performance to round out the preview.Let me read the executive retention 8-K and check for the latest monthly AUM disclosure.Let me quickly check consensus estimates and the latest monthly AUM figure via web search.I have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Franklin walks into this print with real operating momentum — five-plus quarters of positive long-term flows, record ETF/Canvas/alternatives franchises, and a margin story that management says is "ahead of plan." But the stock has re-rated hard (roughly +36% over the past year and ~+40% off the April lows), so the bar is now considerably higher than it was a year ago. The debate is less "is the turnaround real" and more "how much is already priced in."
Q2 was a genuinely strong quarter and set the tone (and the guidance) for what to measure this week:
| Metric | Q2 FY26 (Mar-26) | Q1 FY26 (Dec-25) | Q2 FY25 (Mar-25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.71 | $0.70 | $0.47 |
| GAAP EPS | $0.49 | $0.46 | $0.26 |
| Adjusted operating income | $474.6M | $437.3M | $377.2M |
| Adjusted operating margin | 27.1% | 25.0% | 23.4% |
| Operating revenues | $2,294.9M | $2,327.1M | $2,111.4M |
| Ending AUM | $1,682.1B | $1,684.0B | $1,540.6B |
| Long-term net flows | +$16.9B | +$28.0B | –$26.2B |
Key takeaways feeding into Q3: - AUM was flat QoQ despite +$16.9B of long-term inflows — a $30.2B negative market/distribution swing offset the flows. That market drag should reverse this quarter (see below). - Growth engines all fired: ETF AUM hit a record $61.6B (+67% YoY), Canvas custom-indexing hit a record $22.9B (+27% QoQ), retail SMAs at $168.3B (+$2.7B), multi-asset logged its 19th straight positive-flow quarter (+$9.5B). - Alternatives fundraising was $14.3B ($13.2B private markets), with FYTD private-markets fundraising of $22.7B already matching all of FY25. Management raised the annual alts target to $25–30B and said it expects to exceed $30B.
The fiscal Q3 window (April–June 2026) was a strong tape. Where Q2's headline AUM was held flat by a ~$30B negative market swing, this quarter markets likely worked in Franklin's favor — so watch for ending AUM to push back toward/above the $1.70T average level and for average AUM (the fee-driving number) to step up. This matters because BEN's revenue is highly beta-sensitive, and a rising average AUM directly supports the margin-expansion narrative.
The positive-flow streak is the crux of the bull case. But note the composition: Q2's +$16.9B was struck despite ~$4.1B of net outflows at Western Asset, the fixed-income unit still recovering from its 2024 disruption. Ex-Western, fixed income was actually +$3.6B (9th straight positive quarter). Two things to watch: - Is Western's outflow rate stabilizing or still bleeding? This remains the single biggest idiosyncratic drag. - Can equities (–$4.7B in Q2) narrow, and can multi-asset/alts keep carrying the total to positive?
Private markets are the highest-fee, most strategically important growth vector. Watch for: - Whether FYTD alts fundraising is tracking to the ">$30B" management flagged. - Any update on Lexington's flagship secondaries fund (Fund XI) — management said a filing/first-close update could come "towards fiscal year-end" (September), possibly as early as July. They reiterated no reason it won't match the ~$22B prior fund. Note: no catch-up fees were in Q2, so a first close could add a fee catalyst. - Fee-earning nuance: of the ~$283B alts AUM, ~90% is potential fee-earning but only ~80% is currently fee-generating — the gap (dry powder yet to be deployed) is a source of embedded future fee revenue. - Evergreen products are running at ~$200M/month of inflows across three >$1B vehicles.
On the Q2 call, CFO Matt Nicholls handed investors an unusually precise Q3 model. Hold them to it:
| Q3 FY26 guidance item | Guided figure |
|---|---|
| Effective fee rate | mid-to-high 37 bps (stable vs Q2) |
| Compensation & benefits | ~$830M (assumes a $50M performance fee at 55% payout) |
| Information systems & tech | ~$155M (slightly up on AI spend) |
| Occupancy | ~$70M |
| G&A | $210–215M (incl. ~$23–25M elevated fundraising expense + ~$9–10M ad/marketing) |
Full-year framing: adjusted expenses (ex-perf fees) up ~1.5% vs FY25, with investment-management-fee revenue expected to grow at least ~4x that pace (~6%+) — i.e., meaningful operating leverage. Management targets a fiscal Q4 margin in the high-29s, a full-year margin in the 27s, and a path to 30%+ margins in 2027, "ahead of plan." Any wobble in the fee rate (mix shift, beta) or comp ratio is the fastest way to disappoint.
Dividend is the stated top priority ($0.33/quarter, raised annually). Buybacks are opportunistic — BEN repurchased 2.3M shares for $57.1M in Q2 and routinely offsets employee grant dilution. Seed/co-invest capital has crept up to $2.9B (guided toward ~$3B by year-end), a modest drag on excess capital as the balance sheet supports the alts build-out.
BEN has been one of the sharpest re-raters in traditional asset management: - ~$24 in July 2025 → bottomed near $22 in October 2025 → jumped on the strong April Q2 print (from ~$27.5 to ~$29.5 on the day) → ~$33 into this report. - That's roughly +36% YoY and ~+40% off the early-April lows, broadly in line with peers re-rating (T. Rowe ~$99→$119; Invesco ~$16→$29 over the same year).
The implication: after multiple beat-and-raise quarters and a big multiple recovery, an in-line quarter may not be enough — the market is now looking for continued flow acceleration, confirmation of the Q4 high-29s margin path, and a credible alts/Lexington catalyst to justify the move.
Bottom line: The fundamentals are pointed the right way and management has been executing ahead of its own plan, with a favorable market tape likely helping headline AUM this quarter. The risk is entirely on the expectations side — the stock has already priced in a lot of the good news, so the reaction will hinge on flow durability (especially Western), the margin trajectory, and whether alts/Lexington delivers a fresh catalyst rather than just reaffirmation.
Note: I was unable to pull a live sell-side consensus figure for the quarter from the tools available, so the framing above is anchored to management's own guidance and the Q2 trajectory rather than a specific Street EPS number — worth confirming against your consensus source before the print.