{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.72 vs. cons $0.66",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Investment Mgmt Fees)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.81B vs. cons $1.76B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating Margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~27.8% vs. cons ~27.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 FY2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~28.5% vs. cons ~27.8% (Q4 FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2027 Margin Target (30%+)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~30%+ vs. cons ~29.5% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective Fee Rate (bps)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~37.5bps vs. cons ~37.3bps (Q3 FY2026 realized/Q4 guide)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Alternatives Fundraising Full-Year Target",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide >$30B vs. cons ~$28B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Beat is largely pre-signaled via monthly AUM disclosures (already public through June), so the incremental surprise is mostly in margin/expense execution rather than top-line, capping the initial pop. Elevated retention/compensation expense (new $60M equity awards, carry incentives, higher G&A tied to fundraising) and the persistent Western Asset outflow drag create implicit downward pressure on out-quarter (Q4/FY27) estimates even if Q3 beats, since consensus will need to absorb higher run-rate comp/G&A against a 'flat markets' AUM assumption that has already been exceeded. With the stock up 35-40% YTD and near highs, a good-not-great margin/expense readout likely sees the initial gain partially faded over the week as sell-side normalizes forward EPS for higher opex rather than raising numbers 1:1 with the AUM beat.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}