{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.67 vs. cons $0.66",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~26.6% vs. cons 26.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective investment-management fee rate",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~37.8 bps vs. cons 37.7 bps",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~29.5% vs. cons 29.3% (fiscal Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted compensation expense",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$825M vs. cons $830M (fiscal Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Private-markets fundraising",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$35B vs. cons $33B (fiscal 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The modest EPS beat should be largely attributable to already-disclosed AUM and flows. Unless Q4 margin guidance rises materially above the high-29% range, out-period EPS revisions should be smaller than the reported-quarter beat; elevated fundraising costs and new retention compensation also limit fiscal-2027 estimate upside, causing most of the initial gain to fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}