Bunge Global SA (BG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive — consensus at ~$1.88 adjusted EPS represents a moderate bar that BG should be able to clear given the strong crush margin environment and RVO clarity, with the biggest swing factor being whether Tropical Oils headwinds and higher interest/tax costs are worse than feared.

Heading into Q2 2026, Bunge's earnings setup is arguably the most constructive it has been in several quarters, driven by a combination of RVO policy clarity, robust soy and softseed crush margins, and the continued ramp of Viterra synergies.

The bar is moderate: consensus sits at ~$1.88 adjusted EPS, up from $1.31 in Q2 2025 (pre-Viterra), implying the market is already pricing in meaningful year-over-year improvement from the expanded footprint — but management's own cadence guidance (40% first half / 60% second half, with Q2 implied at roughly $1.90–$2.10 based on the $9.00–$9.50 full-year range) suggests consensus is roughly in line with internal expectations.

Management's tone on the Q1 call was notably more confident than at Q4 2025, raising full-year guidance by $1.50 at the midpoint and citing forward curves that are "up versus prior forecast" across both soy and softseed footprints — a meaningful shift from the cautious posture just three months earlier.

Estimate revisions have been stable-to-slightly-up since the Q1 print, with the Q2 consensus moving from ~$1.84 to ~$1.88, suggesting the street is tracking guidance rather than diverging — a healthy setup with limited downside revision risk baked in.

The stock has underperformed significantly since Q1 earnings (BG -7.1% vs. SPY +4.1% and MOO +2.4%), suggesting the market has not priced in a beat and the multiple remains undemanding, creating asymmetric upside if Q2 results confirm the full-year guidance raise was durable.

The key wildcard is Tropical Oils & Specialty Ingredients — management flagged this segment as "more challenging" in Q2 due to cocoa butter equivalent (CBE) uncertainty and tariff impacts, and any meaningful miss here, combined with higher-than-expected interest expense (~$155–165M quarterly run-rate) and a higher tax rate, could offset crush strength and disappoint on the bottom line.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus at ~$1.88 adjusted EPS and ~$758M core EBIT represents a moderate bar — achievable given crush margin tailwinds, but Tropical Oils weakness and higher interest/tax costs are the key swing factors that could push results to either end of the range.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 28, 2026. YoY comparisons reflect Viterra consolidation beginning Q3 2025; Q2 2025 actuals are pre-Viterra and therefore not directly comparable on an organic basis.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

KPI 1: Adjusted EPS (Diluted Operating)

Pattern: BG has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses (Q2 2024, Q4 2024) occurring in a weaker pre-Viterra margin environment; the Q1 2026 beat was outsized (+106%) as the street had dramatically underestimated the post-Viterra crush margin recovery following management's conservative Q4 2025 guidance.

KPI 2: Adjusted Segment EBIT — Core (Operating)

Pattern: Core EBIT has beaten or met consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the only miss in Q4 2024 driven by weaker-than-expected processing margins. The Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 beats were particularly large, reflecting the step-change in earnings power from the Viterra combination and the market's tendency to underestimate BG's operational leverage in strong crush environments.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management dramatically raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at Q1 2026 earnings (April 29) — from $7.50–$8.00 to $9.00–$9.50 — a $1.25/share midpoint increase driven by stronger-than-expected crush margins and RVO clarity; tone has shifted from cautious to confident, with Viterra synergies running ahead of schedule.

Source: BG Q4 2025 Earnings Call (Feb 4, 2026) and Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 29, 2026). Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved sharply higher since Q1 2026 earnings — Q2 2026 EPS consensus rose from $1.84 to $1.88 and FY 2026 from $9.15 to $9.20 — tracking management's guidance raise closely; the gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is narrow, suggesting limited cushion for upside surprise but also limited downside revision risk.

Estimates are tracking guidance tightly: the EPS revision since Q1 earnings is modest (+2.2% for Q2, +0.5% for FY), suggesting the street has largely digested the guidance raise without adding further cushion. The slight revenue estimate drift lower (-1.6% for Q2) is consistent with commodity price movements and does not signal fundamental concern. The key risk is that the implied Q2 EPS from management's cadence guidance ($1.90–$2.10) sits above current consensus ($1.88), creating potential for a beat if Tropicals and interest headwinds are less severe than feared.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 earnings baseline as of approximately May 5, 2026 (5 trading days post April 29, 2026 print).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: BG has significantly underperformed since Q1 2026 earnings — down ~7.1% vs. SPY +4.1% and MOO +2.4% — driven by multiple compression rather than estimate cuts, as the stock de-rated from ~13x to ~12x NTM EPS despite the guidance raise; this creates an attractive setup into Q2 if results confirm the earnings power upgrade is durable.

BG vs. MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 29, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Since Q1 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, BG has declined approximately 7.1% (from $126.31 to $117.37 as of July 28, 2026), meaningfully underperforming both the S&P 500 (+4.1%) and the VanEck Agribusiness ETF MOO (+2.4%). The underperformance is notable given that BG raised full-year guidance by ~$1.50/share at the midpoint on the Q1 call — suggesting the market is skeptical about the durability of the crush margin environment in H2 2026 or is discounting the guidance raise due to the heavily inverted forward curve. The stock reached a post-earnings high of ~$131 in early June before selling off sharply through late June and early July (touching ~$105), likely driven by concerns about the Middle East conflict's impact on trade flows, El Niño crop risk, and China-U.S. trade uncertainty. A partial recovery to ~$117 in late July suggests some stabilization, but the stock remains well below its post-earnings peak and trades at a meaningful discount to the average analyst price target of ~$141–$144, implying ~20%+ upside if the earnings thesis plays out.

Key Events Since Q1 2026 Earnings:

• April 29, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings beat; FY 2026 guidance raised to $9.00–$9.50 from $7.50–$8.00; stock initially flat to slightly up.
• May 2026: Stock drifted lower on broader market volatility and concerns about H2 crush margin sustainability; Barclays raised PT to $150 (Overweight).
• Early June 2026: Stock rallied to ~$131 on improving crush margin data and biofuel policy optimism.
• Mid-to-Late June 2026: Sharp selloff to ~$105–$107 driven by Middle East conflict escalation, El Niño concerns, and China-U.S. trade uncertainty weighing on grain merchandising outlook.
• July 2026: Partial recovery to ~$117 ahead of Q2 earnings; Zacks downgraded to Hold (June 29); consensus PT ~$141–$144 implies significant upside.

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

6. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through for Q2 2026

Key Takeaway: ADM's Q1 2026 commentary is the most directly relevant read-through for BG's Q2 2026 — confirming a constructive crush margin environment, strong soy meal demand, RVO-driven biofuel tailwinds, and improving China buying patterns; AGRO's commentary adds color on South American ethanol dynamics and fertilizer demand that is incrementally positive for BG's origination footprint.

Note: Only forward-looking commentary from peer earnings calls about the Q2 2026 operating environment is included below. Backward-looking Q1 2025 results commentary has been excluded.

ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 5, 2026)

Relevance: ADM is BG's closest direct peer in oilseed processing, grain merchandising, and biofuels. ADM's commentary on crush margins, soy meal demand, RVO policy, and China buying patterns is the highest-quality read-through for BG's Q2 2026 results.

• Crush Margins — Constructive and Improving: ADM raised its FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.70 (from $3.60–$4.25), citing "the expectation that the improved margin environment for our crushing and ethanol businesses will continue." North American crush rates in March jumped 6% month-over-month and ran ~10% above prior year levels, driven by strong immediate demand for soy oil and meal. Read-through for BG: Directly supports BG's Q2 2026 soybean and softseed processing EBIT expectations; the constructive crush environment ADM describes was the same environment BG was operating in during Q2.
• Soy Meal Demand — Surging Globally: ADM noted that "global soybean meal demand continues to surge, driven by still healthy livestock profitability and expanding dairy output," with the soy meal-to-corn ratio near or below 2x sustaining high inclusion rates in feed formulas. China's higher corn prices are making soy meal substitution even more acute. Read-through for BG: Consistent with BG management's own Q1 commentary that "meal demand globally continues to surprise to the upside month after month"; supports volume and margin assumptions for BG's soybean processing segment in Q2.
• RVO / Biofuel Policy — Significant Tailwind: The EPA's finalization of RVOs for 2026 and 2027 on March 27 was a major catalyst, with RIN values rising by $1 and creating margins for biodiesel and renewable diesel plants to come online, pulling soy oil demand and increasing crush margins and rates. ADM expects "a constructive biofuel environment going forward" and anticipates the 45Z tax credit to contribute ~$150M to FY 2026 results. Read-through for BG: BG's Q1 call also highlighted RVO clarity as a key driver of improved North American canola and soy crush curves; ADM's confirmation that this environment persisted into Q2 is a positive read-through for BG's softseed and soybean segments.
• China Buying Patterns — Normalizing: ADM is "assuming that China will resume a normalized buying pattern for North American soybeans" and expects China to continue buying its normal volume in Q4, though this is flagged as a key watch item. North American export activity was strong in Q1, including increased soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Read-through for BG: Positive for BG's grain merchandising segment, which was impacted by ocean freight costs in Q1; normalized China buying would support origination volumes and merchandising margins in Q2.
• Inverted Forward Curve — H2 Uncertainty: ADM acknowledged "a lot of uncertainties in the second half" driven by trade deal outcomes (Trump-China), conflict resolution, crop and weather conditions, and energy prices. The inverted soy crush futures curve reflects strong immediate demand but uncertainty about H2. ADM's H1/H2 earnings split is expected at approximately 49%/51%. Read-through for BG: Consistent with BG's own guidance of 40% H1 / 60% H2; both companies see Q2 as strong but acknowledge H2 uncertainty, which is already reflected in the inverted forward curve that BG management discussed on its Q1 call.
• Argentina Harvest Delays: ADM noted that Argentina "lost all the cushioning from the old crop" and that its crush is currently limited by harvest delays due to floods, which has supported U.S. soybean meal exports. Read-through for BG: Mixed for BG — BG has significant Argentina processing capacity (a key driver of Q1 beat), so harvest delays could temporarily constrain Argentina volumes in Q2, but the resulting tighter global meal supply supports margins across BG's broader footprint.

AGRO (Adecoagro) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 12, 2026)

Relevance: Adecoagro is a South American agribusiness with operations in Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Its commentary on South American ethanol dynamics, fertilizer demand, and crop conditions provides incremental color on BG's origination and processing footprint in the region.

• Brazil Ethanol — Demand Absorbing Surplus: AGRO noted that ethanol prices fell ~20% since the start of the new sugarcane season, but the pump parity rate of ~60% is "enough to absorb the ethanol surplus from one year to the other," with hydro ethanol expected to reach ~30% market share. AGRO is maximizing ethanol production for the full year. Read-through for BG: Brazil's ethanol market dynamics are relevant to BG's softseed and soybean processing operations in Brazil; a healthy ethanol market supports vegetable oil demand and biofuel blending economics, consistent with BG's constructive biofuel outlook.
• Argentina Fertilizer Demand — Robust: AGRO does not foresee a significant reduction in fertilizer demand in Argentina, noting that "the most that can be reduced is 10%, but we don't even see that reduction happening." Fertilizer needs begin in June–August for wheat and September–November for corn. Read-through for BG: Robust fertilizer demand signals healthy planting intentions in Argentina, which supports BG's grain origination volumes and processing throughput in the region for the upcoming crop cycle.
• El Niño Risk — Emerging: AGRO flagged that "this apparently looks like an El Niño year," which could positively affect sugar prices but also means more rains and potentially higher fertilizer usage. El Niño could reduce Northern Hemisphere production and improve sugar prices. Read-through for BG: BG management also cited El Niño as a key uncertainty for H2 2026 on its Q1 call; AGRO's commentary confirms this is a real and emerging risk that the market is beginning to price in, with implications for crop yields and commodity prices in BG's key operating regions.
• South America Cost Reduction — Positive: AGRO expects a 10%–15% cost reduction in Brazilian Reais, driven by increased volume (cost dilution), efficiency gains, and a lower Consecana price, partially offset by fertilizer and diesel cost pressures. Read-through for BG: Incrementally positive for BG's South American processing margins; lower input costs in the region support the margin expansion story that drove BG's Q1 2026 beat.

Source: ADM Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 5, 2026); AGRO Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 12, 2026). TSN (Tyson Foods) and CALM (Cal-Maine Foods) Q2 2026 transcripts were reviewed but contained no material read-through for BG's Q2 2026 operating environment.

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 2026 earnings is the sharp stock selloff driven by Middle East conflict escalation and El Niño concerns — creating a valuation disconnect vs. the improved fundamental outlook; the RVO finalization and Viterra synergy momentum remain the key positive catalysts heading into Q2.

• April 29, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat & Major Guidance Raise: BG reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.83 vs. consensus of $0.89 (+106% beat), with adjusted segment EBIT of $661M vs. $406M in Q1 2025. Full-year 2026 guidance raised to $9.00–$9.50 from $7.50–$8.00. Implication: Confirmed the Viterra combination is delivering ahead of expectations; set a high bar for Q2 but also demonstrated management's ability to execute in a complex environment.
• March 27, 2026 — EPA Finalizes RVOs for 2026–2027: The EPA published final Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, providing long-awaited policy clarity for the biofuel market. RIN values rose by ~$1, creating margins for biodiesel and renewable diesel plants to come online. Implication: Directly positive for BG's soybean and softseed processing margins; management cited this as a key driver of the improved forward curve for North American canola and soy crush on the Q1 call.
• March 2026 — Acquisition of IFF's Soy Protein & Lecithin Business ($105M): BG closed the acquisition of IFF's soy protein concentrate, lecithin, and processing businesses, complementing BG's existing protein portfolio and expanding lecithin offerings. Implication: Bolt-on acquisition consistent with BG's strategy to move up the value chain in specialty ingredients; modest near-term EPS impact but strategically important for the food ingredients segment.
• Mid-to-Late June 2026 — Middle East Conflict Escalation: Escalation of the Middle East conflict "meaningfully disrupted global trade flows, logistics costs and supply chains" (per BG Q1 call). BG's stock fell sharply from ~$131 to ~$105 during this period. Implication: Key risk for Q2 grain merchandising and ocean freight results; BG noted it is taking "prudent operational steps" to manage risk, but the spike in bunker fuel costs already impacted Q1 grain results and may persist into Q2.
• June 25, 2026 — BG Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Release: BG announced Q2 2026 results will be released July 29, 2026 before market open, with a conference call at 8:00 AM ET. Implication: Routine scheduling announcement; no pre-announcement or guidance update, suggesting results are tracking within the expected range.
• April 30, 2026 — Barclays Raises PT to $150 (Overweight): Barclays raised its price target on BG from $145 to $150 following the Q1 2026 earnings beat and guidance raise. Implication: Reflects sell-side confidence in the post-Viterra earnings power upgrade; current stock price of ~$117 implies ~28% upside to Barclays' target.
• March 31, 2026 — BMO Capital Markets Raises PT to $150 (Outperform): BMO raised its price target from $135 to $150 ahead of Q1 earnings. Implication: Pre-earnings bullish positioning by a major sell-side firm; consistent with the constructive setup into Q2.
• June 29, 2026 — Zacks Downgrades BG to Hold: Zacks Research downgraded BG from Strong Buy to Hold, likely reflecting the stock's sharp selloff and uncertainty around H2 2026 earnings cadence. Implication: Sentiment-driven downgrade rather than fundamental; the stock's underperformance since Q1 earnings may be creating a contrarian opportunity if Q2 results confirm the guidance raise.
• Ongoing — El Niño Development & China-U.S. Trade Uncertainty: Both BG management and peer AGRO flagged increasing concern about El Niño development and its potential impact on Northern Hemisphere crop yields. China-U.S. trade dynamics remain unresolved, with BG's grain merchandising segment exposed to any disruption in soybean export flows. Implication: Key macro wildcards for H2 2026; less directly impactful for Q2 results but will be closely watched in management's Q2 commentary and updated guidance.

Source: BG Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (Apr 29, 2026); BG Press Releases; Internet Search (July 28, 2026).

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells were recorded since Q1 2026 earnings — all transactions are routine equity award grants (code A) and tax-withholding share forfeitures (code F) associated with vesting events; the absence of any discretionary selling by the CEO or CFO is a mild positive signal, and the complete lack of open-market buying is unremarkable given the stock's recent underperformance.

All Form 4 transactions filed between May 15, 2026 and June 3, 2026 are routine compensation-related events: (1) Code F transactions on May 15 represent tax-withholding share forfeitures upon RSU vesting — these are obligation-driven dispositions, not discretionary sales; (2) Code A transactions on May 20 and June 1 represent equity award grants to directors and officers as part of annual compensation. No open-market purchases (Code P) or discretionary sales (Code S) were identified in the period since Q1 2026 earnings.

No open-market buys (Code P) or discretionary sales (Code S) were identified in the period from April 29, 2026 through July 28, 2026. All transactions are routine compensation-related events. The absence of any discretionary insider selling at current price levels (~$117) is a mild positive signal, particularly given the stock's ~20% discount to consensus analyst price targets.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data).