Bunge Global SA (BG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive — consensus has been revised meaningfully higher since Q1 and the bar is achievable, but the single biggest swing factor is whether soybean and softseed crush margins held through June amid the sharp mid-quarter selloff in BG shares.

Bunge heads into its Q2 2026 print with a materially improved earnings backdrop relative to the cautious tone set on the Q4 2025 call. Management's Q1 2026 beat ($1.83 adjusted EPS vs. the ~$0.80 guide issued in February) and the subsequent full-year guidance raise to $9.00–$9.50 (from $7.50–$8.00) reset the bar sharply higher, and the consensus Q2 adjusted EPS estimate of ~$1.88 implies roughly flat sequential performance — a bar that looks achievable given the strong South American crush season and biofuel tailwinds that management flagged on the Q1 call. Guidance tone has shifted decisively more confident: CEO Greg Heckman described Q1 as a "strong" quarter executed with "discipline and speed" and cited the EPA's RVO decision as a positive catalyst for soybean oil demand, while Viterra cost synergies are running ahead of plan. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance upward — the FY 2026 consensus has moved from ~$9.15 (post-Q1) to ~$9.20 currently — suggesting the street is broadly aligned with management's view rather than skeptical. The stock, however, tells a more complicated story: BG peaked near $131 in early June before selling off ~19% to a trough near $105 in early July, significantly underperforming both MOO and the S&P 500 over the inter-earnings period, which means the stock is not pricing in a beat and the setup is asymmetrically positive if crush margins held. The key wildcard is the trajectory of ocean freight costs (bunker fuel spike hurt Grain Merchandising in Q1) and whether Tropical Oils weakness deepened in Q2 given lower cocoa prices and softer food customer volumes.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a moderate bar — Q2 adjusted EPS of ~$1.88 is roughly flat vs. Q1's $1.83 actual, consistent with management's own "roughly flat quarter-over-quarter" Q2 guide. Adjusted Segment EBIT is the bigger swing factor: the Q2 consensus of ~$757M implies a meaningful step-up from Q1's $661M, driven by expected soybean and softseed processing strength, and any shortfall here would be the primary miss driver.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (BG). All consensus figures as of July 28, 2026. Q2 2025 actuals and Q1 2026 actuals from Visible Alpha / Bunge Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 29, 2026). FY 2026 guidance range from Q1 2026 earnings call (April 29, 2026) — raised from $7.50–$8.00 to $9.00–$9.50.

Table 2 — Beat / Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

KPI 1: Adjusted (Operating) Diluted EPS

Pattern: Bunge has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 6 of the last 7 comparable quarters, with the sole miss in Q4 2024 driven by a conservative pre-Viterra close environment; the Q1 2026 beat of +106% was the largest on record, driven by management's deliberately low Q1 guide issued at the Q4 2025 call.

KPI 2: Adjusted Segment EBIT — Core ($M)

Pattern: Adjusted Segment EBIT has beaten or matched consensus in 6 of 7 comparable quarters; the Q3 2025 beat (+51%) was the largest, reflecting the first full quarter of Viterra contribution. The Q4 2024 miss was the only meaningful shortfall, driven by a challenging grain merchandising environment pre-Viterra close.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (BG). Consensus figures represent the estimate as of the reporting date for each quarter.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has shifted dramatically since the Q4 2025 call — the full-year adjusted EPS range was raised by ~$1.50 at the midpoint following Q1's strong beat, and management's tone has moved from cautious to confident. No post-Q1 guidance revisions have been issued via 8-K or conference.

Source: Bunge Q4 2025 Earnings Call (February 4, 2026); Bunge Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call (April 29, 2026). No post-Q1 guidance revisions were issued via 8-K or investor conference through July 28, 2026.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have tracked guidance sharply higher since Q1 — the FY 2026 EPS consensus has risen ~$0.05 since the post-Q1 baseline and sits just below the guidance midpoint, suggesting the street is broadly aligned but not yet pricing in upside to the top of the range. The Q2 estimate has been stable since the Q1 call, consistent with management's "roughly flat quarter-over-quarter" framing.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (BG). Post-Q1 baseline uses the consensus as of May 6, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the April 29, 2026 earnings release). Current consensus as of July 28, 2026. Guidance from Bunge Q4 2025 Earnings Call (February 4, 2026) and Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 29, 2026).

Commentary: The EPS revision trajectory is constructive — estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print and sit just below the guidance midpoint, implying the street is not yet pricing in the top of the range. The slight downward drift in revenue and EBIT estimates since May likely reflects the mid-quarter selloff in commodity prices and the bunker fuel headwind flagged for Grain Merchandising, but the magnitude is small and does not signal a consensus breakdown.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: BG's post-Q1 performance has been driven by multiple contraction, not earnings deterioration — the stock peaked near $131 in early June before a sharp ~19% selloff to ~$105 in early July, significantly underperforming both MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) and the S&P 500. The stock has partially recovered to ~$117 but remains well below its June peak, creating an asymmetric setup into the print.

Chart: BG vs. MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at April 29, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date)

Note on ETF selection: MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) is used as the sector benchmark. MOO tracks the MVIS Global Agribusiness Index and holds major agribusiness companies including Bunge, ADM, Nutrien, and Corteva, making it the most appropriate sub-sector comparator for BG's diversified agribusiness model.

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:

• Apr 29, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings beat; FY guidance raised to $9.00–$9.50. Stock opened higher.
• Jun 3–4, 2026: BG peaked near $131 before reversing sharply. Soybean complex sold off on NOPA crush data and money manager liquidation (165k contracts sold in one week, a record).
• Jun 15–Jun 30, 2026: Continued selloff; BG fell from ~$123 to ~$107, underperforming MOO and SPY materially. Crude oil decline (down ~40% in Q2) weighed on biofuel feedstock sentiment.
• Jul 1–8, 2026: BG troughed near $105 before recovering on improving crush margin signals and UBS commentary citing BG as a preferred renewable diesel feedstock provider.
• Jul 28, 2026: BG at ~$117, down ~7.2% since Q1 earnings vs. MOO +2.4% and SPY +4.1%.

Performance Decomposition: Over the 3-month window, BG's P/E multiple contracted from ~14.4x to ~11.9x (NTM), accounting for the majority of the stock's underperformance. EPS estimates have actually risen modestly over the same period, confirming that the selloff was sentiment/multiple-driven rather than fundamental. The 12-month return of +51.9% reflects the transformational Viterra re-rating, with P/E expanding from ~9.4x to ~11.9x over that window.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Visible Alpha Stock Performance Decomposition (BG, as of July 28, 2026).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the EPA's RVO decision supporting biofuel volumes, which directly validates Bunge's soybean oil demand thesis and underpins the FY 2026 guidance raise. The mid-quarter commodity selloff (crude oil down ~40% in Q2) is the primary risk to watch.

• Apr 29, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat & FY Guidance Raise: Bunge reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.83 vs. consensus of ~$0.89, a +106% beat. Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $9.00–$9.50 from $7.50–$8.00. Management cited strong South American crush, biofuel demand, and Viterra synergies running ahead of plan. Implication: Resets the earnings trajectory materially higher; the Q2 bar is now achievable rather than stretched.
• Apr 29, 2026 — EPA RVO Decision (Biofuel Mandates): The EPA issued its Renewable Volume Obligation decision, setting volumes that management described as supportive of investments made by fuel producers, oilseed processors, and farmers. Bunge commended the decision. Implication: Directly supports soybean oil demand for renewable diesel/biodiesel; management estimated the U.S. could produce ~1 billion more gallons of renewable diesel in 2026 vs. 2025, requiring ~8 billion pounds of additional feedstock (50% soybean oil). This is a multi-quarter tailwind for Bunge's processing margins.
• Apr 2, 2026 — Trade Receivables Securitization Program Expanded to $2 Billion: Bunge expanded its trade receivables securitization program from $1.5B to $2.0B via 8-K. Implication: Enhances liquidity management for the larger post-Viterra working capital base; credit-positive.
• Apr 1, 2026 — Performance-Based Executive Incentive for Viterra Integration: Bunge's Board approved a performance-based executive incentive tied to Viterra integration milestones. Implication: Signals management confidence in synergy delivery; aligns executive compensation with integration success.
• Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun) — Crude Oil Down ~40% in Q2: Crude oil futures fell sharply in Q2 2026, driven by the resolution of Middle East tensions (U.S.-Iran conflict de-escalation). Implication: Lower crude reduces the substitution value of renewable diesel and biodiesel, weighing on D4 RIN values and discretionary blending economics. This is the primary headwind to Bunge's soybean oil demand thesis for Q2, though mandatory RVO volumes provide a floor.
• Jun 4, 2026 — AFPM Lawsuit Challenging EPA Biofuel Mandates: The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers trade group filed a lawsuit challenging the EPA's biofuel mandates, arguing they increase compliance costs and raise fuel prices. Implication: Regulatory risk to the RVO framework; if successful, could reduce mandatory blending volumes and weigh on soybean oil demand. Near-term impact limited as mandates remain in effect.
• Jun 10, 2026 — NOPA Crush Data (May 2026): NOPA members processed just under 209 million bushels in May 2026, below the average estimate of 216 million bushels. Average daily crush at 6.735 million bushels was an 8-month low. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.735 billion lbs., well below expectations and a 5-month low. Implication: Mixed signal — lower crush volumes suggest some margin pressure, but tight bean oil stocks support oil prices and processing margins. Cumulative crush still tracking USDA forecast.
• Jun 15, 2026 — Money Manager Soybean Complex Liquidation: Money managers sold nearly 165,000 contracts across the soybean complex in one week, the most ever, reducing their long position to 275,000 contracts. Crush margins slipped to $3.64/bu. Implication: Speculative liquidation drove the mid-June selloff in BG shares; fundamental crush economics remained positive but sentiment turned sharply negative.
• Jul 15, 2026 — U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Brazil: The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, with Brazilian ethanol included but major agricultural categories (beef, coffee, oranges) exempted. Brazil indicated it had not ruled out retaliatory measures. Implication: Potential disruption to U.S.-Brazil agricultural trade flows; Bunge has significant Brazilian origination and processing operations. If Brazil retaliates on U.S. agricultural exports, it could shift soy flows in ways that benefit or hurt Bunge depending on positioning.
• Jul 17, 2026 — UBS Cites BG as Preferred Renewable Diesel Feedstock Provider: UBS analyst Manav Gupta raised Green Plains' price target and noted: "In the renewable space, we see more upside in renewable diesel (DAR) and RD feedstock providers (BG, ADM) than GPRE." Implication: Positive read-through for BG's soybean oil / biofuel positioning; analyst community increasingly views BG as a structural beneficiary of the renewable diesel buildout.
• Jul 23, 2026 — ADM Appoints New COO (Jeffrey Rowe from Syngenta): ADM announced the appointment of Jeffrey Rowe as EVP and COO, effective August 17, 2026. Implication: Competitive context — ADM continues to rebuild its leadership team following its accounting investigation; a stronger ADM management team could intensify competition in grain merchandising and oilseed processing.

7. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified for BG in the period from April 29, 2026 through July 28, 2026 via SEC Form 4 filings. The absence of insider activity is neither a positive nor negative signal in isolation, but the lack of open-market buying during the sharp mid-quarter selloff (BG fell ~19% from peak to trough) is notable.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings database (insider_transactions dataset), filtered for BG, transaction codes P (open-market purchase) and S (open-market sale), filing date April 29, 2026 through July 28, 2026. No qualifying transactions were returned. Note: equity award grants (code A) and option exercises (code M) are excluded per the open-market-only screen.

8. Peer Commentary & Read-Through

Screening Methodology

Strict 60-Day Screen Applied: This section includes only peer management commentary that (a) was made within the 60 days prior to July 28, 2026 (i.e., on or after May 29, 2026), AND (b) speaks directly to conditions during the current April–June 2026 reporting quarter or to the forward outlook relevant to Bunge's Q2 2026 print. Commentary made by peer management about their own prior-quarter results (e.g., Q1 2026 results discussed on Q1 earnings calls in April/May) is excluded unless it contains explicit forward-looking statements about Q2 2026 or the current operating environment. Analyst commentary (not management) is included where it provides direct read-through to BG's current-quarter setup.

Peer Universe Considered: ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland), DAR (Darling Ingredients), GPRE (Green Plains), ANDE (The Andersons), INGR (Ingredion). These are the most relevant agribusiness, oilseed processing, and biofuel peers for BG's four reporting segments.

Qualifying Peer Commentary

1. UBS on Green Plains (GPRE) — July 17, 2026 (Analyst Note, Current-Quarter Outlook)

UBS analyst Manav Gupta raised GPRE's price target to $20 from $12 (Neutral) ahead of GPRE's Q2 2026 results, citing a "strong" earnings outlook. Critically, Gupta explicitly named BG as a preferred play: "In the renewable space, we see more upside in renewable diesel (DAR) and RD feedstock providers (BG, ADM) than GPRE." UBS raised its Q2 2026 EBITDA estimate for GPRE to $93M from $36M and its 2026 EBITDA projection to $283M from $149M, citing improved ethanol crush margins and $55.2M in 45Z credit monetization benefits in Q1.

BG Read-Through: Strongly positive. UBS's framing of BG as a preferred "RD feedstock provider" directly validates the soybean oil / biofuel demand thesis underpinning Bunge's FY 2026 guidance raise. The strong ethanol crush environment (GPRE Q2 EBITDA estimate tripled) implies healthy biofuel economics broadly, which supports soybean oil demand for renewable diesel blending. The 45Z credit monetization signal is also positive for BG's processing economics.

2. Darling Ingredients (DAR) — SouthernSun Q2 2026 Investor Letter (Published ~July 24, 2026, Covering Q2 2026 Period)

SouthernSun Small Cap Strategy's Q2 2026 investor letter (covering the April–June 2026 quarter) noted that DAR was a bottom contributor in Q2 after being a top contributor in Q1 (up ~65% through March 31). The letter stated: "DAR's fundamentally improved earnings trajectory following the robust EPA mandates on renewable fuel volumes remains intact, and the business is performing well. The modest decline in the share price in Q2 largely reflected the pending resolution(s) of the Iran military conflict, which brought nonrenewable fuel prices down meaningfully. For reference, Crude Oil Futures were down nearly 40% in the second quarter, and DAR declined partly due to the substitution value of renewables being incrementally less for aviation fuel, in particular. That said, the DAR volume picture for the year is not impacted meaningfully by exogenous factors like the price of oil and is rather determined by the minimum volume requirements from the RVO and the growth of DAR's other business lines."

BG Read-Through: Constructive with nuance. The key insight is that mandatory RVO volumes provide a floor for biofuel feedstock demand regardless of crude oil prices — a direct positive for Bunge's soybean oil processing economics. The crude oil selloff (~40% in Q2) weighed on discretionary blending and SAF economics, which is a headwind to the upside case for soybean oil demand, but the mandatory volume floor limits downside. This is consistent with Bunge management's Q1 framing that the EPA RVO decision "supports investments made by fuel producers, oilseed processors, and farmers."

3. ADM Investor Services — Ag Market Views (June 4, June 10, June 15, 2026, Current-Quarter Market Commentary)

ADM Investor Services published multiple Ag Market View reports during Q2 2026 covering soybean crush economics directly relevant to Bunge's Q2 setup:

• June 4, 2026: "Board crush margins backed off $0.17½/bu. from yesterday's all-time closing high at $4.17½/bu. Bean oil PV rests near its all-time high at 55%." The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers trade group filed a lawsuit challenging EPA biofuel mandates.
• June 10, 2026: "Crush margins were off $0.02½ to $3.70/bu. with bean oil PV improving to 55.5%... Bean oil usage for biofuel production continues to play catch-up after the slow start to the 25/26 MY. Usage in March 2026 at 1.283 billion lbs. was a record high, however still needs to average 1.348 per month April through September to reach the current USDA usage forecast of 14.2 billion lbs. Surging D4 RIN values have kept biodiesel and RD margins profitable despite the higher BO cost."
• June 15, 2026: "Crush margins slipped $0.03 to $3.63½/bu. with bean oil PV holding steady at 55.2%. Money managers combined to sell nearly 165k contracts across the soybean complex, the most ever in a week, reducing their long position to 275k contracts... NOPA members processed just under 209 million bu. in May 2026, coming in below the average estimate of 216 million bu. Average daily crush at 6.735 million bu. was an 8-month low. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.735 billion lbs., well below expectations and a 5-month low."

BG Read-Through: Mixed but net positive for Q2. Crush margins peaked at all-time highs in early June (~$4.17/bu.) before pulling back to ~$3.63/bu. by mid-June — still well above historical averages and supportive of Bunge's soybean processing EBIT. The record bean oil PV (~55%) and surging D4 RIN values confirm strong biofuel demand economics during the quarter. The NOPA miss and money manager liquidation explain the BG stock selloff but do not necessarily indicate a fundamental earnings miss — Bunge's processing margins were likely strong through most of Q2 given the early-June crush margin peak. Tight bean oil stocks (5-month low) are a positive signal for oil pricing.

4. Darling Ingredients (DAR) — Analyst Price Target Raise (July 13, 2026, Forward-Looking)

Multiple analysts raised price targets on DAR in mid-July 2026, citing "supportive renewable diesel policy, expected benefits at the Diamond Green Diesel unit, and the company's exposure to higher margin markets." Analysts described the backdrop as "constructive, particularly for the Diamond Green Diesel unit, which is seen as supported by a favorable policy environment, solid utilization, and potential capture benefits from that framework." The updated fair value estimate rose from $61.22 to $63.11.

BG Read-Through: Positive. Analyst upgrades on DAR's renewable diesel unit in mid-July signal that the biofuel policy environment remains supportive heading into Q2 earnings season. DAR's Diamond Green Diesel is a major consumer of soybean oil and animal fats — if DGD utilization is solid, it supports feedstock demand and processing margins for Bunge.