{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.50B vs. cons $2.47B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Non-GAAP EPS (incl. ~$0.95 IPR&D charge)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.90 vs. cons $0.79",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Growth portfolio revenue (LEQEMBI/SKYCLARYS/ZURZUVAE/QALSODY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$920M vs. cons ~$895M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 non-GAAP EPS (first Apellis-inclusive guide)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$13.75 (midpoint) vs. cons ~$14.25 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 total revenue (Apellis-inclusive)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.9B vs. cons ~$9.7B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 IPR&D / other-expense drag (Q3 ~$290-320M charge flagged)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.55B IPR&D + ~$125M Apellis other expense vs. cons ~$0.35B (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "SYFOVRE/EMPAVELI 2H26 contribution",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.5B vs. cons ~$0.5B (2H26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even if the underlying revenue and growth-portfolio print beat, the headline is distorted by the ~$0.95 Q2 IPR&D charge and the pre-flagged ~$1.75-1.95 Q3 charge. The first Apellis-inclusive FY26 guide bakes in ~$120-130M financing/other expense and additional IPR&D, so consensus out-period EPS gets cut even on an operational beat. With the stock already re-rated ~16% YTD into the low-$200s and the unresolved diranersen Phase 3 overhang, elevated positioning plus downward EPS revisions drive a fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}