BLDR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BLDR Report Net sales (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$3.98B vs. cons $3.91B MEDIUM
BLDR Report Adj. EBITDA (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$320M vs. cons ~$323M MEDIUM
BLDR Report Adj. diluted EPS (Q2'26) MISS pred ~$1.20 vs. cons $1.28 MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY26 Adj. EBITDA range LOWER guide ~$1.15–1.40B, mid ~$1.28B vs. cons ~$1.30B (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY26 Net sales range UNCHANGED guide ~$14.6–15.6B, mid ~$15.1B vs. cons ~$15.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY26 Gross margin LOWER guide/trend ~27.5–28.5% vs. cons ~28.3% (FY2026) LOW
BLDR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
BLDR Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) BLDR's pattern (Q1) is a revenue beat via low-margin lumber/bundling with an EPS/margin miss; a modest in-line quarter is likely accompanied by a trim to the top of the FY EBITDA range and continued skepticism on the promised back-half margin hockey-stick. The out-period math (implicit 2H and FY27 cuts) pulls estimates lower even if the headline is fine, so any relief in a washed-out, Zacks-Sell name fades and drifts lower through the week. Downside is cushioned by the ~-5% pre-print residual on 7/29 already pricing fear, keeping conviction low. LOW