BLDR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BLDR Report Q2 2026 Net Sales MISS pred ~$3.80B vs. cons $3.92B MEDIUM
BLDR Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA MISS pred ~$290M vs. cons $320M MEDIUM
BLDR Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$1.08 vs. cons $1.29 MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY2026 Net Sales Guidance LOWER guide ~$14.2B-14.8B (midpoint ~$14.5B) vs. cons ~$15.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance LOWER guide ~$1.00B-1.20B (midpoint ~$1.10B) vs. cons ~$1.28B (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY2026 Gross Margin Guidance/Commentary LOWER guide ~27.0%-28.0% vs. cons ~28.3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLDR Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance LOWER guide ~$350M-$450M vs. cons ~$450M (FY2026) LOW
BLDR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.0% MEDIUM
BLDR Return 5-day cumulative residual -8.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) BLDR has posted large negative earnings-day residuals in 3 of its last 4 prints (~-5% to -7%), reflecting a pattern of estimate resets rather than one-off misses. With Q1 already cutting FY26 guidance and specialty-products margin pressure unresolved, a probable second consecutive guidance cut plus soft peer read-throughs (DHI trimmed orders/guidance, Lennox pushed recovery to 2027) should pull FY26/FY27 consensus EBITDA and EPS lower across sell-side models in the days after the print, driving continued downward revisions and price follow-through rather than a snapback, especially with net debt/EBITDA already elevated at 3.2x limiting buyback offset. MEDIUM