{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Net Sales",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.80B vs. cons $3.92B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$290M vs. cons $320M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.08 vs. cons $1.29",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Sales Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$14.2B-14.8B (midpoint ~$14.5B) vs. cons ~$15.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.00B-1.20B (midpoint ~$1.10B) vs. cons ~$1.28B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Gross Margin Guidance/Commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~27.0%-28.0% vs. cons ~28.3% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$350M-$450M vs. cons ~$450M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -8.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "BLDR has posted large negative earnings-day residuals in 3 of its last 4 prints (~-5% to -7%), reflecting a pattern of estimate resets rather than one-off misses. With Q1 already cutting FY26 guidance and specialty-products margin pressure unresolved, a probable second consecutive guidance cut plus soft peer read-throughs (DHI trimmed orders/guidance, Lennox pushed recovery to 2027) should pull FY26/FY27 consensus EBITDA and EPS lower across sell-side models in the days after the print, driving continued downward revisions and price follow-through rather than a snapback, especially with net debt/EBITDA already elevated at 3.2x limiting buyback offset.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}