Report Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026, before market open (call at 8:00–8:15 a.m. ET)
BMY shares have been on a strong run into the print, rallying from roughly $55 in early June to close near $63.6–$63.7 the day before earnings — a new high for the year and up roughly 19% year-to-date. Sentiment has clearly improved after a choppy first half, but the stock remains a battleground name: BMY has a strong track record of beating expectations, with recent quarters showing solid performance, and investors will focus on drug sales trends, pipeline progress, and guidance. More bluntly, the stock remains contested between bears concerned about patent expirations and bulls highlighting the promising pipeline, cheap valuation, and healthy dividend.
Consensus for Q2 2026 (per sell-side aggregators): - Revenue: Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $1.60 per share and revenue of $11.7414 billion for the quarter. A separate estimate puts EPS at $1.61 on a diluted basis, up 10.3% from $1.46 in the year-ago quarter, with the company having exceeded Wall Street's EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters. - On a headline basis this implies a revenue decline versus last year's $12.27B print — one source frames it as the market expecting Bristol-Myers Squibb's revenue to decline 6.3% year on year, a deceleration from its flat revenue in the same quarter last year — but the comparison is skewed by a one-time item (see below). - Full-year 2026: analysts project the company's EPS to be $6.32, up 2.8% from $6.15 in fiscal 2025, though EPS is expected to decline 3.6% year over year to $6.09 in fiscal 2027. - Analyst positioning: analysts are reasonably bullish on BMY, with the stock having a "Moderate Buy" rating overall — among 30 analysts, 10 recommend "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," 18 "Hold," and one "Strong Sell," with an average price target of $62.65.
Important base-effect note: Q2 2025's non-GAAP EPS of $1.46 included net impact of $(0.57) due to the Acquired IPRD charge associated with the BioNTech strategic partnership (the pumitamig deal). Excluding that charge, underlying Q2 2025 EPS was closer to $2.03, so this year's ~$1.60 consensus actually represents a meaningful step-down in "clean" earnings power — a reminder that Legacy Portfolio erosion is still a real headwind even as the Growth Portfolio scales.
Q1 set the stage: - First quarter revenues increased 3% (+1% Ex-FX) to $11.5 billion, with Growth Portfolio revenues increasing 12% (+9% Ex-FX) to $6.2 billion. - GAAP EPS was $1.31 and non-GAAP EPS was $1.58. - Management struck a confident tone: "we see our financial performance tracking towards the upper end of our established revenue and EPS guidance ranges." - Growth was broad-based: revenue growth was primarily driven by Camzyos, Breyanzi and Reblozyl, while Legacy Portfolio revenues of $5.3 billion decreased 6%, or 8% Ex-FX, as demand increased for Eliquis, which was more than offset by expected continued generic impacts across the remainder of the Legacy Portfolio.
A specific dynamic to watch in Q2: on the Q1 call, CFO David Elkins flagged that Eliquis saw "some wholesaler inventory build in the first quarter" tied to the U.S. price reduction, and that "we anticipate this build to reverse in the second quarter." That means reported Eliquis growth in Q2 could look softer than underlying demand — a nuance likely to come up on the call. Similarly, Opdivo's Q1 U.S. weakness was tied to "an Opdivo inventory drawdown at the wholesaler level, where inventories are at the low end of the typical range," with management still monitoring whether levels normalize.
The "Growth Portfolio" (Camzyos, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Opdivo Qvantig, Sotyktu, Cobenfy, Krazati, etc.) is the crux of the long-term thesis, and Q1 trends were encouraging:
| Product | Q1'26 WW Revenue | YoY Growth (Ex-FX) |
|---|---|---|
| Camzyos | $314M | 94% |
| Breyanzi | $411M | 53% |
| Opdualag | $295M | 15% |
| Reblozyl | $555M | 15% |
| Opdivo Qvantig | $163M | >200% |
| Sotyktu | $69M | 20% |
| Cobenfy | $56M | 107% |
Key qualitative points from management: Camzyos is "approaching 25,000 patients now prescribed... in the U.S. with thousands more prescribed internationally," and BMS believes it will retain leadership against new competitor entrants because "roughly 90% of patients on Camzyos are on the 5-milligram starting dose... simply dose titration to 10 milligrams." Qvantig (subcutaneous nivolumab) has "delivered over 10% conversion from IV to Qvantig in the U.S. in just over a year on the market" with management targeting 30-40% conversion within two years.
Watch for: updated Growth Portfolio guidance/trajectory, further Camzyos commentary post-aficamten (competitor) launch, and Cobenfy/Qvantig/Breyanzi run-rates.
The Legacy Portfolio (Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, Abraxane) continues to shrink as generics bite: - Q1'26: Revlimid -63%, Pomalyst -22%, Sprycel -58%, Abraxane -53% (worldwide, ex-FX). - Eliquis remains the offsetting bright spot for now — FY26 guidance calls for total Worldwide Eliquis revenues to increase in 2026... with WW revenue growth of 10%-15% — but the patent cliff is approaching fast. In the EU, the apixaban composition of matter patents and related SPCs expire in November 2026, and the U.S. compound patent is set to expire on September 14, 2026, with generics expected this year for Europe and in 2027 for the US and Japan. Separately, Medicare's IRA-driven maximum fair price of $231/30-day supply took effect in January 2026, reducing net revenues two years ahead of the patent cliff — a dynamic already visible in the Q1 U.S. price cut/wholesaler inventory noise. Watch for management commentary on how the EU LOE (this quarter) and looming U.S. LOE are being modeled into H2 guidance.
Notably, BMS/Pfizer are also playing defense on the affordability/optics front: beginning April 27, 2026, Eliquis became available on Cost Plus Drugs, and patients with a prescription will pay a total of $345 for a 30-day supply.
Management has repeatedly framed 2026 as a "data-rich" year, and several binary readouts loom in H2 2026 (after this print but critical to the multi-year thesis):
BMS has stayed active on BD despite balance-sheet discipline. In late May/June 2026 it announced a broad collaboration with China's Hengrui Pharma: the potential total value of the agreement is up to approximately $15.2 billion, including the exercise of available options for the joint discovery programs and the achievement of applicable development, regulatory, and commercial milestones, structured as up to $950 million, including a $600 million upfront payment, a $175 million first anniversary payment, and a second contingent anniversary payment of $175 million in 2028. The deal spans 13 oncology, hematology, and immunology programs and is expected to close in Q3 2026, pending Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance — an update on timing/regulatory progress is likely on the call.
On the cost side, management reiterated it remains on track to deliver the remainder of its $2 billion cost-savings program by the end of 2027, and is leaning further into AI/automation for R&D productivity — reinforced by a recently expanded computing partnership with Nvidia to power BMS's internal "AI factory" for drug discovery.
Balance sheet: net debt stood at $33.6 billion as of Q1 2026 (down from $34.0B at year-end 2025), with ~$10.9 billion in cash and marketable securities. The board declared a $0.63/share quarterly dividend (paid August 3, 2026), underscoring continued shareholder returns even as free cash flow absorbs BD spend and IRA-driven price pressure.
Q1 2026 guidance was reaffirmed and skewed positive: reaffirms 2026 financial guidance with revenues of ~$46.0 billion to $47.5 billion; non-GAAP EPS range of $6.05 to $6.35, with total revenues and non-GAAP EPS trending toward the upper end of the ranges. Consensus FY26 EPS of ~$6.32 already sits near the top of that range, so the key question for Q2 is whether management raises/narrows guidance or simply reaffirms the "upper end" language — any hint of caution given Eliquis LOE timing or Legacy erosion would be watched closely.
BMY heads into Q2 2026 earnings near 52-week highs, with a market that has grown more comfortable pairing a shrinking Legacy Portfolio and looming Eliquis patent cliff against a Growth Portfolio compounding at low-double-digit-to-triple-digit rates and a genuinely data-rich late-2026/2027 pipeline (milvexian, Cobenfy in Alzheimer's, admilparant, iberdomide/mezigdomide). The print itself is likely to be a "steady execution" story — the more important signals will be management's tone on Eliquis erosion timing, guidance conviction, and confidence heading into the string of pivotal trial readouts that will really define the stock's next leg.