Report: Thursday, July 30, 2026, before the market opens
Event: 2026 Q2 earnings call
Share price: approximately $63.67 as of July 29
This quarter is less about whether Bristol Myers can manufacture another modest EPS beat and more about whether its new-product portfolio is scaling quickly enough to offset accelerating legacy-product erosion.
The near-term financial setup is reasonably favorable: management said after Q1 that revenue and EPS were tracking toward the upper end of full-year guidance, Eliquis demand remained strong, and several newer products were growing rapidly. But expectations have also increased. BMY shares have risen roughly 6% since July 20 and about 15% year to date, while the 2026 consensus EPS estimate has moved close to the top of management’s range. (tradingview.com)
A good report therefore probably requires more than an EPS beat. Investors will want:
Consensus varies somewhat by data provider:
| Metric | Street expectation | Q2 2025 | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B–$11.9B | $12.27B | Approximately -3% to -5% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.59–$1.60 | $1.46 | Approximately +9% |
Zacks places consensus at $11.67 billion and $1.59, while another aggregation based on ten analysts shows $11.86 billion and $1.60. The difference is worth noting when interpreting whether the headline release constitutes a “beat.” (tradingview.com)
The expected combination—lower revenue but higher adjusted EPS—captures the BMY story: steep generic erosion is still pressuring the top line, while cost reductions, product mix and comparatively low Q2 acquired-IPRD expense support earnings. BMY has preliminarily indicated no acquired-IPRD charge and $16 million of licensing income for Q2, versus a large BioNTech-related acquired-IPRD charge in the prior-year quarter. (bms.com)
Eliquis generated $4.14 billion in Q1, up 13% excluding currency. Management said Q1 benefited from wholesaler inventory build following the U.S. list-price reduction and explicitly expected that inventory benefit to reverse in Q2. Full-year guidance calls for 10%–15% worldwide growth in 2026. (bms.com)
The Q2 consensus is approximately $4.0 billion, implying:
What matters: Management’s description of demand, inventory and the second-half trajectory. A result below $4 billion would be manageable if clearly explained by inventory timing; weaker underlying demand would be more concerning.
Standalone Opdivo disappointed in Q1, falling to $2.15 billion as U.S. wholesaler inventories dropped to the low end of the normal range and patients continued converting to subcutaneous Opdivo Qvantig. Management said Qvantig had converted more than 10% of U.S. IV business and maintained a longer-term conversion target of approximately 30%–40%. (bms.com)
Consensus calls for about $2.4 billion of Opdivo sales, down roughly 6% year over year but rebounding substantially from Q1. (tradingview.com)
Investors should avoid overreacting to the reported Opdivo number in isolation. The important metrics are:
A combined-franchise miss would be more significant than an isolated Opdivo shortfall accompanied by a strong Qvantig result.
The most important commercial evidence for BMY’s post-legacy future will come from the following products:
| Product | Q1 2026 sales | Q2 reference point |
|---|---|---|
| Reblozyl | $555M | Consensus around $660M |
| Breyanzi | $411M | Consensus around $447M |
| Camzyos | $314M | Sequential growth expected |
| Opdualag | $295M | Consensus around $331M |
| Cobenfy | $56M | Sequential acceleration is the key test |
| Qvantig | $163M | Continued conversion-driven growth expected |
The cited consensus figures would represent approximately 16% year-over-year growth for Reblozyl, 30% for Breyanzi and 17% for Opdualag. (tradingview.com)
Camzyos nearly doubled year over year in Q1. The main questions are whether new-patient starts and persistence remained strong after the entrance of a competing cardiac myosin inhibitor, and whether BMY still expects to retain market leadership. The FDA is also reviewing the adolescent obstructive-HCM indication, with a September 30, 2026 target action date. (news.bms.com)
Cobenfy remains commercially small relative to BMY’s revenue base, but it carries outsized strategic importance because of the price paid for Karuna and the potential expansion beyond schizophrenia. Investors should focus on:
A merely steady result may be viewed as insufficient given expectations embedded in the asset.
Breyanzi grew 53% excluding currency in Q1. Another strong quarter would support the view that BMY has built a commercially meaningful cell-therapy franchise rather than a niche asset with manufacturing and treatment-center constraints. (bms.com)
The growth portfolio is working, but the offset is demanding. In Q1, the legacy portfolio still represented about 46% of company revenue, with sharp declines in Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane. (tradingview.com)
The toughest Q2 comparisons include:
The key question is not whether these products decline—they will—but whether management’s forecasts are conservative enough that erosion can be absorbed without reducing revenue or EPS guidance.
Current 2026 guidance is:
| Metric | 2026 guidance |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.0B–$47.5B |
| Adjusted EPS | $6.05–$6.35 |
| Adjusted gross margin | 69%–70% |
| Operating expenses | Approximately $16.3B |
| Effective tax rate | Approximately 18% |
| Eliquis growth | 10%–15% |
Following Q1, management said both revenue and EPS were trending toward the upper end. (bms.com)
Street EPS expectations have subsequently reached approximately $6.34, essentially the top of the range. That creates an asymmetric guidance setup:
Gross margin also deserves attention. Q1 adjusted gross margin fell to 70.3%, and full-year guidance is only 69%–70%, reflecting the unfavorable mix shift away from high-margin legacy medicines. A beat driven predominantly by lower R&D or commercial spending would be lower quality than one driven by better revenue and gross profit.
BMY’s long-term valuation depends on replacing Eliquis and the remaining legacy portfolio. The second-half catalyst schedule is consequently critical.
The first CELMoD approval would be an important validation of BMY’s targeted-protein-degradation platform. Mezigdomide’s SUCCESSOR-2 study produced median progression-free survival of 18 months versus 8.3 months for the control arm, corresponding to a 52% reduction in progression or death risk. (news.bms.com)
Investors should listen for any timing changes involving:
These readouts are more important to BMY’s long-term earnings power than a few cents of Q2 EPS. A reaffirmed catalyst calendar is therefore essential.
Recent global Phase 2 data in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer showed encouraging response rates across histologies and PD-L1 levels, and BMY/BioNTech now have seven global Phase 3 trials with registrational potential underway. However, the data remain interim and response-rate driven; investors will ultimately need durable progression-free and overall-survival evidence to justify expectations for a new immuno-oncology backbone. (bristolmyers2016ir.q4web.com)
The most likely Q2 profile is continued growth from Eliquis and the newer portfolio, overwhelmed at the reported revenue level by generic erosion, but producing higher adjusted EPS through cost control and easier below-the-line comparisons.
The numerical bar—roughly $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion of revenue and $1.59 to $1.60 of adjusted EPS—is not especially demanding given BMY’s recent history of earnings beats. The qualitative bar is higher.
A bullish report would combine an EPS and revenue beat with strong combined Opdivo/Qvantig performance, accelerating Cobenfy and Camzyos sales, and raised or clearly upper-end guidance.
A neutral report would feature a modest EPS beat, mixed product sales and unchanged upper-end guidance.
A bearish report would show weaker underlying Eliquis demand, a combined Opdivo/Qvantig miss, sluggish Cobenfy adoption, or any delay to the major late-2026 clinical readouts.
Ultimately, tomorrow’s print should help determine whether BMY is merely managing its patent-expiration decline effectively—or has begun building a credible bridge to renewed growth later in the decade.