Timing clarification: BXP is scheduled to release Q2 results today, Tuesday, July 28, 2026, after the NYSE close. The earnings call is tomorrow, Wednesday, July 29, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
BXP enters the quarter with a compelling operating narrative: demand for premier office space is improving, leasing is running ahead of last year’s plan, and signed-but-not-yet-occupied leases should drive a multi-year occupancy recovery.
The question is no longer simply whether leasing activity has improved. Investors now need evidence that:
The stock closed at $69.23 on July 27, up roughly 33% from March 31 and approximately 20% since the Q1 report. At that price, BXP trades around 9.9x the midpoint of 2026 FFO guidance and offers an approximately 4.0% dividend yield. Expectations are therefore higher than they were three months ago, even though the stock remains only modestly positive year to date and has lagged the broader listed real-estate sector.
| Metric | Q2 2026 management guidance |
|---|---|
| Diluted FFO/share | $1.69–$1.71 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.44–$0.46 |
| Full-year FFO/share | $6.90–$7.04 |
| Full-year EPS | $2.15–$2.29 |
| FY average in-service occupancy | 87.75%–88.75% |
| FY share of same-property NOI growth, excluding termination income | 1.4%–2.4% |
| FY cash same-property NOI growth, excluding termination income | -0.25% to +0.25% |
The cleanest benchmark is $1.70 of Q2 FFO per share, the midpoint of company guidance. More important than a small quarterly beat or miss will be the revised full-year range and underlying assumptions.
A constructive result would likely include:
A modest FFO beat driven mainly by termination income would be less valuable than a quarter showing stronger recurring rental revenue and future lease commencements.
BXP ended Q1 with:
That spread is the core of the bull case. BXP has already signed much of the space needed to improve occupancy; the remaining issue is timing.
Management estimated that, even with no additional leasing, known commencements and expirations could take occupancy to roughly 89% by year-end. It continues to target approximately 91% by the end of 2027.
BXP executed 1.15 million square feet of leases in Q1. At the June 2 REITweek conference, management said it had already completed more than 800,000 square feet in Q2, implying year-to-date leasing above 1.9 million square feet two months into the quarter.
Management also reported:
This leaves BXP well positioned against its minimum 4 million-square-foot 2026 leasing target.
Q1 leasing volume was strong, but portfolio-wide second-generation cash rents declined:
| Q1 2026 executed leases | Gross cash rent change | Net cash rent change |
|---|---|---|
| Total portfolio | -1.9% | -3.2% |
| San Francisco | +10.2% | +15.4% |
| New York | -5.3% | -9.5% |
| Washington, DC | -5.2% | -7.6% |
| Los Angeles | -32.5% | -47.6% |
These comparisons can be distorted by the age and economics of expiring leases, but they show why headline square footage is not enough.
At REITweek, management said market rents were increasing approximately:
Management also indicated that concessions were beginning to decline in those tighter markets. Q2 leasing statistics should show whether those comments are flowing through to signed economics.
Q1 second-generation tenant improvements and leasing commissions totaled $178 million, reflecting an unusually large 2.3 million square feet of lease commencements. Management raised its expectation for full-year leasing costs to more than $400 million.
Consequently, Q1 funds available for distribution were only $88.7 million, producing a 140% FAD payout ratio. Management described this as a timing effect from unusually heavy commencements, but investors should monitor:
BXP’s annualized dividend is $2.80 per share and remains well covered by FFO, but near-term cash coverage is much less smooth.
New York is central to the occupancy thesis. At the end of Q1:
Management said roughly 800,000 square feet of the portfolio-wide leased-versus-occupied gap was in Midtown Manhattan, where rents are especially high. As those leases commence, New York should make a disproportionate contribution to NOI.
At REITweek, management said 360 Park Avenue South could reach 100% leased if discussions for its final two floors were completed.
Watch: occupancy conversion at 200 Fifth and 360 Park Avenue South, Times Square Tower leasing, and whether strong market pricing translates into better cash spreads.
San Francisco finished Q1 at:
The largest recent success has been 680 Folsom, which was more than 92% leased at the end of Q1 after substantial AI- and technology-related activity. Management said approximately 80% of first-quarter San Francisco market leasing was related to AI companies.
The upside is meaningful because Embarcadero Center One, Two and Three remain only approximately 68%–71% occupied. Those assets provide operating leverage if AI-driven demand broadens beyond the South of Market submarket.
Watch: additional leases at Embarcadero Center, 680 Folsom commencements, and evidence that demand is broadening beyond a handful of AI tenants.
Boston contributes approximately 37% of BXP’s share of NOI, making it the company’s largest region. Core Boston and Cambridge remain exceptionally well occupied, but the suburban portfolio is weaker.
Q1 total Boston occupancy was 92.4%, while several Urban Edge properties remained underoccupied. Management nevertheless described an improving life-science environment and said demand was increasingly coming from life-science companies seeking conventional office space rather than wet labs.
The delivery of the fully leased 290 Binney Street project to AstraZeneca should add NOI, although its early completion also reduces capitalized interest.
Watch: 290 Binney contribution, leasing at 180 CityPoint and other suburban properties, and management’s assessment of the Boston life-science recovery.
Reston remains one of BXP’s tightest markets, with the portfolio more than 97% leased at the end of Q1. Defense, cybersecurity and professional-services demand has supported leasing.
The DC CBD is more bifurcated, but BXP is benefiting from clients willing to pay replacement-cost rents for new premier buildings. This is driving tenant-led development at 725 12th Street and the planned 2100 M Street project.
Watch: Reston rent growth, signed pre-leasing for future DC developments, and whether new projects remain largely tenant-driven and appropriately capitalized.
343 Madison is BXP’s largest development and its most important capital-allocation issue.
At REITweek, management said:
The project’s total BXP investment was estimated at approximately $2.0 billion, with a projected stabilized unleveraged cash yield of 7.5%–8.0%.
Failure to sign the anticipated leases would be a notable disappointment. Conversely, additional leasing plus a financing announcement would materially reduce the project’s perceived balance-sheet risk.
Asset recycling is the second pillar of BXP’s strategic plan. The company initially targeted $1.9 billion of net proceeds through 2028.
As of June 2, management said it had:
That suggests BXP could approach its original $1.9 billion target well ahead of schedule, although some marketed sales may not close until 2027.
The proceeds are intended to:
BXP’s share of net debt to annualized EBITDAre was 8.5x at the end of Q1, though management described a seasonally adjusted figure of approximately 8.1x at REITweek. The target is to move toward the low-7x range over the next 18–24 months.
Upcoming financing requirements include:
BXP had approximately $1.5 billion of remaining revolver capacity at the end of Q1, but the preferred outcome is asset-sale proceeds and project capital rather than additional corporate leverage.
Watch: Q2 closing proceeds, assets under contract, debt repayment, 2026 refinancing activity, net debt/EBITDA, and any change in credit-rating commentary.
BXP raised full-year FFO guidance by one cent after Q1, to $6.90–$7.04. Better portfolio performance and termination income were largely offset by higher expected interest expense.
The principal guidance tension remains:
A guidance raise based on same-property NOI and rental revenue would be significantly more constructive than one based on termination fees or gains, the latter of which do not benefit FFO in the same manner.
This would strengthen the case that BXP is at the beginning of a durable occupancy and NOI recovery.
That would be a satisfactory quarter, though the stock’s rally since March may limit the immediate upside.
Such an outcome would challenge the market’s growing confidence that leasing momentum can overcome BXP’s capital intensity and elevated leverage.
The most important number in the release may not be quarterly FFO. It will be the evidence that BXP’s signed lease pipeline is converting into occupied, rent-paying space at acceptable economics.
Going into the report, the operating setup is favorable:
The offsets are equally clear:
A strong report therefore needs more than an FFO beat. Investors should look for occupancy conversion, improving leasing economics, signed progress at 343 Madison, and concrete balance-sheet deleveraging.