I'll research CBOE before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and investigate the notable price moves (the May 1 jump and the early-June drop).Q1 was a blockbuster beat with a big guidance raise. But the stock had a dramatic ~20% collapse in early June. Let me investigate what drove that and gather recent news/analyst context.Let me get the latest 8-K on the credit facility and recent daily news, plus check quarterly volume/VIX context to frame Q2 expectations.I have strong context now. Let me quickly grab the year-ago (Q2 2025) headline figures to frame the YoY comparison, then write the preview.I now have what I need. Here's the preview.

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports before the open, Friday, July 31, 2026 | 2026Q2 Earnings Call

The one-line setup

Cboe heads into Q2 with all the momentum of a blockbuster Q1, a volatility-rich macro backdrop, and a stock that has round-tripped a huge swing. The debate isn't whether the quarter was good — it's whether management raises guidance again, how much of the realignment savings and Canada/Australia divestitures are landing, and how the event-contracts/prediction-markets narrative evolves. Expect a likely Q3 dividend hike to accompany the print.

1. Why the bar is high: the Q1 2026 blowout

The May 1 report reset expectations dramatically:

Metric	Q1 2026	YoY
Net revenue	$728.9M (record)	+29%
Adjusted diluted EPS	$3.70 (record)	+48%
Adj. operating margin	72.4%	+6.4pp
Adj. operating EBITDA	$540.8M	+41%

Growth was broad-based — record net revenue in every major category, with SPX options averaging ~4.9M contracts/day (a record) and a March monthly record of 5.4M. Crucially, management raised the full-year 2026 organic net revenue growth target to "low-double-digit to mid-teens" (from mid-single-digit), lifted Data Vantage to "low-double-digit," and cut adjusted opex guidance to $838–853M (from $864–879M). That combination — accelerating revenue + falling cost guide — is why the stock gapped up ~9% on the print.

Read-through for Q2: the comparison base is Q2 2025's $587.3M net revenue / $2.46 adjusted EPS. Given the volatility backdrop (below), the market is positioned for another quarter of strong double-digit YoY growth. After a raise like Q1's, "in-line" may not be enough to move the stock — investors will want a second guidance bump.

2. The macro tailwind: a genuinely volatile tape

Q2 (April–June 2026) spanned an unusually active risk environment, which is the single most important swing factor for Cboe's index-options and VIX franchises:

US–Iran conflict. Military escalation in the Persian Gulf, strikes exchanged, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut drove oil spikes and equity volatility. Management flagged the "Iran war" as a March catalyst that shifted flow toward longer-dated (non-0DTE) hedging — a positive mix for RPC.
A sharp late-May/June selloff. Equities and the whole exchange group sold off hard into early June (CBOE fell from ~$366 to a ~$231 low), the kind of tape that historically drives record VIX and SPX activity.
Fed uncertainty under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held rates for a fifth straight meeting on July 29 amid inflation running above target for five years; markets are openly questioning Warsh's credibility, with long yields spiking. Persistent policy uncertainty is a structural positive for hedging demand.

What to watch: whether Q2 SPX and VIX ADV set fresh records, and whether the non-0DTE/0DTE mix and index-options RPC (already $0.940 in Q1) held up. Higher index mix = higher blended RPC = operating leverage.

3. Key numbers and segment watch-items

Index options — the profit engine. Q1 index ADV +29% YoY; watch for continued records and RPC stability (~$0.94).
Multi-listed options — Q1 RPC jumped 21% YoY to $0.080; is that step-up durable or was it fee/mix-driven?
Data Vantage — Q1 grew 19%, but ~85% was units/new sales and management flagged one-time historical data sales tied to two new product launches. The full-year guide is only "low-double-digit," so a sequential normalization is expected — don't over-extrapolate the 19%.
Europe/APAC & Global FX — both hit records in Q1 (+32% and +38%); FX ADNV and European market share (25.5%) are the tells. Note FX/Europe carry FX-translation sensitivity.
Futures — the laggard (+9% in Q1); VIX futures activity in a volatile quarter is the key driver.
Modeling note: the disappearance of the Section 31/regulatory-fee gross-up in 2026 optically compresses gross revenue and gross cost of revenue but is roughly net-neutral to net revenue — keep YoY net-revenue comparisons clean.

4. Guidance — the real event

This is the crux. After the aggressive Q1 raise, the questions are: 1. Does organic revenue guidance move up again from "low-double-digit to mid-teens," or does management hold given the tougher 2H comps? 2. Expense discipline — reaffirm/lower the $838–853M adjusted opex range? Q1 opex was only $200.9M (+4% YoY), well below run-rate, so there's room. 3. Data Vantage — any read on whether "low-double-digit" is conservative.

5. Strategic realignment — show me the progress

CEO Craig Donohue (one year in), COO Scott Johnston, and CFO Jill Griebenow have engineered an aggressive reshaping. Track updates on:

~20% total workforce reduction (earlier exits + the additional Q1 actions), plus a return-to-office mandate.
Expense savings now targeted at $100–120M annualized (12–14%) vs 2025. Only ~$20–25M is in the 2026 guide; the majority of the incremental $40–50M lands later in 2026 into 2027, and the Canada/Australia-related $40–50M is NOT yet in guidance (recognized only after close).
Canada & Australia divestitures — definitive agreement signed; watch for closing/regulatory timing. Until close, ~$60–70M of annualized revenue and $40–50M of opex remain in the numbers. Guidance will be updated as these close, so a mid-year "recut" is possible.
Wind-downs of Japanese equities, CEDX (European derivatives), and corporate listings; scaled-back ETP listings and analytics.

Net effect: a deliberate pivot from "bigger" to "sharper and higher-margin" — reallocating capital toward derivatives, clearing, and new growth areas.

6. Event/prediction markets & the SPX exclusivity question

The most important long-term narrative: - Securities-based event contracts (binary/vertical-spread structures on XSP/Mini-SPX) are pending regulatory approval, leveraging existing OCC-cleared, retail-broker-connected infrastructure. Phase 2 ambition: company-specific KPI contracts (e.g., earnings, subscriber, production, ad-revenue outcomes) — a potentially enormous TAM if realized. - Competitive/regulatory overhang: rivals (e.g., Kalshi-type venues) have launched S&P-500-linked binaries. Management argues broad-index binaries are inherently securities and is "optimistic" regulatory clarity protects its licensed products — but this is unresolved. - SPX exclusivity runs to 2032, and competitors are eyeing that window. Management leaned hard into the depth/breadth of the SPX ecosystem (11 floor-broker groups, 34 retail platforms, balanced flow, 58% of notional traded on the floor) as the moat. Any new color here matters. - Adjacent optionality: tokenization/atomic settlement and expanded US/Europe clearing (including securities-finance).

7. Capital returns and balance sheet

Dividend: Cboe has a history of raising the dividend in Q3 — an increase from the current $0.72/quarter could be announced alongside or shortly after this print. High-probability positive catalyst.
Buybacks: resumed opportunistically ($45M in Q1); ~$569M remained authorized at Q1-end. Watch pace given the June price dip created an attractive window.
Fortress balance sheet: ~$2.1B adjusted cash and ~0.8x leverage at Q1, plus divestiture proceeds coming — ample capacity for organic investment, M&A, or returns.
Recent financing: a new $400M five-year revolving credit facility (July 24, upsizable to $600M, covenants updated to support clearing activities) and a one-year extension of Cboe Clear Europe's €1.7B facility — housekeeping that supports the clearing-expansion strategy. Note ~$649.5M of debt shifted to current portion at Q1.

8. Stock setup into the print

YTD ~+19% (≈$248 → ~$297), meaningfully outperforming peers (CME, ICE, NDAQ roughly flat-to-down YTD).
A violent round trip: post-Q1 melt-up to a ~$366 high (mid-May), a ~$231 low (late June) in the broad selloff, then a July recovery back near $300–308 before a ~3.5% pullback on July 30 amid market-wide Fed jitters.
The stock ran ~5% into the report over the prior three sessions — so expectations are elevated and positioning is not washed out. With CBOE at a premium valuation to the exchange group, the reaction likely hinges on the guidance raise + dividend combo more than the headline beat.

9. Risk checklist

Volatility normalization — Cboe's best quarters need active markets; a sudden calm would pressure the setup.
"One-timers" in Data Vantage not repeating; watch the organic run-rate.
Regulatory outcome on binary/event contracts and any erosion of the SPX moat ahead of 2032.
Execution risk on a ~20% headcount cut + RTO (attrition, morale) while simultaneously investing in new areas.
FX translation on Europe/APAC and FX segments.
Sector M&A backdrop (e.g., ICE/MarketAxess) raising the bar on capital-deployment expectations.

Bottom line

Cboe should report another strong, volatility-fueled quarter with wide margins. But after Q1's rare "raise revenue / cut costs" double, the market is essentially pricing in continued acceleration. The share-price reaction will likely be driven by (1) a second guidance raise, (2) a Q3 dividend increase, (3) tangible progress on realignment savings and the Canada/Australia closings, and (4) any regulatory/competitive news on event contracts and SPX — more than by the headline EPS beat itself.

Note: Figures above are drawn from Cboe's own filings/transcripts (Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 releases, recent 8-Ks) and market data; I did not have access to sell-side consensus estimates, so YoY comparisons are framed against the year-ago quarter ($587.3M net revenue / $2.46 adjusted EPS) and management's stated guidance rather than Street numbers.