| CBOE |
Report |
Total Net Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$735M vs. cons $708.5M |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Report |
Adjusted Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.55 vs. cons $3.41 |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Report |
Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin |
BEAT |
pred ~74.5% vs. cons ~73.0% |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Guide |
FY2026 Organic Total Net Revenue Growth Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~mid-teens (14%) vs. cons ~low-double-digit (12%) (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted Operating Expense Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$838-853M vs. cons ~$845M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Guide |
Data Vantage Organic Revenue Growth Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~low-teens (13%) vs. cons ~low-double-digit (11%) (FY2026) |
LOW |
| CBOE |
Guide |
Options/Multi-listed Market Share Stabilization Commentary |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~qualitative 'stabilizing' vs. cons expecting continued erosion to ~28.5%/21.5% (Q2 2026) |
LOW |
| CBOE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CBOE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.7% (FADE) |
Much of the beat is already discounted since Cboe pre-discloses monthly volumes (record June/Q2 ADV was public before the print), and the stock has already rallied ~28% off its June 29 low into the report, so a clean beat-and-raise is largely priced. With 5 straight EPS beats already in the base, the incremental surprise needed to sustain gains is high; meanwhile lingering overhangs (Kalshi/Polymarket prediction-market competition, continued options/multi-listed market-share erosion, and only partial 2026 realization of the new $100-120M cost-saving program) give analysts reason to trim out-period assumptions even after an in-quarter beat, producing a sell-the-news fade over the following days. |
LOW |