{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Net Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$735M vs. cons $708.5M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.55 vs. cons $3.41",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~74.5% vs. cons ~73.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic Total Net Revenue Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-teens (14%) vs. cons ~low-double-digit (12%) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Operating Expense Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$838-853M vs. cons ~$845M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Data Vantage Organic Revenue Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~low-teens (13%) vs. cons ~low-double-digit (11%) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Options/Multi-listed Market Share Stabilization Commentary",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~qualitative 'stabilizing' vs. cons expecting continued erosion to ~28.5%/21.5% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.7,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Much of the beat is already discounted since Cboe pre-discloses monthly volumes (record June/Q2 ADV was public before the print), and the stock has already rallied ~28% off its June 29 low into the report, so a clean beat-and-raise is largely priced. With 5 straight EPS beats already in the base, the incremental surprise needed to sustain gains is high; meanwhile lingering overhangs (Kalshi/Polymarket prediction-market competition, continued options/multi-listed market-share erosion, and only partial 2026 realization of the new $100-120M cost-saving program) give analysts reason to trim out-period assumptions even after an in-quarter beat, producing a sell-the-news fade over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}