Report Date: Friday, July 31, 2026, before market open | Call: 8:30 a.m. ET Last Close (7/30/26): ~$296.56 | Q1 2026 Report Card: Beat (5 consecutive quarters of EPS beats)
Cboe reports Q2 2026 results tomorrow morning after one of the more volatile quarters in the exchange group's recent history. The stock rocketed to an all-time high above $366 in mid-May before a ~37% drawdown to roughly $231 by June 29, driven by a combination of (1) a broad tech/rates-driven market selloff (memory-chip cost shock, Fed leadership transition uncertainty, AI-capex jitters that hit CME, ICE and Nasdaq in tandem) and (2) idiosyncratic fears that Kalshi's CFTC-approved bitcoin perpetual futures and Polymarket's push for regulated U.S. market access could erode Cboe's derivatives moat. Shares have since recovered to the high-$200s/near-$300 on record June/Q2 volume prints and the formal launch of Cboe's own prediction-markets suite.
Analyst estimates going into the print cluster around revenue of ~$708–710 million (consensus per Zacks pegs the figure at $708.5 million, roughly 20.6% above the year-ago quarter) and adjusted EPS in the $3.08–$3.45 range, with several trackers citing ~$3.41–$3.45, up from $2.46 a year ago. Full-year 2026 EPS is modeled around $13.56, up 27% year over year.
Cboe has beaten consensus EPS in each of the last five quarters (average surprise ~5%), and its own Q2 monthly-volume disclosures have already been unusually strong — a mild positive skew heading into the report.
Cboe's first quarter was a franchise record on virtually every metric: net revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $728.9 million, adjusted diluted EPS rose 48% to $3.70, and adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded 610bps to 74.2%. Growth was broad-based — Cash & Spot Markets (+34%), Derivatives (+32%), and Data Vantage (+19%) — powered by record SPX index options volume (ADV of 4.9 million contracts, +34% y/y) and record European equities, FX and North American equities activity. Management used the quarter to raise full-year 2026 guidance: organic total net revenue growth was lifted to "low-double-digit to mid-teens" from "mid-single-digit," Data Vantage organic growth was raised to "low-double-digit," and adjusted operating expense guidance was cut to $838–853 million from $864–879 million.
Cboe's own monthly volume disclosures (reported through June, on a one-month lag basis) point to another record quarter:
Importantly, management's own RPC/net-capture guidance for the quarter shows multi-listed options RPC compressing (2Q guide of $0.064 vs. $0.080 in March) even as index options RPC holds near $0.95 — a mix dynamic investors should watch for margin implications, offset by record volume.
The single largest swing factor in the stock's recent action has been the prediction-markets land grab. The CFTC's approval of a bitcoin perpetual futures contract for Kalshi in late May, alongside Polymarket's continued push for CFTC/SEC-sanctioned U.S. market access, raised fears that non-traditional platforms could disintermediate exchange incumbents in adjacent derivative products — contributing to a sharp de-rating of CBOE shares even as underlying volumes hit records. Cboe's own derivatives chief has publicly said the company is exploring converting its bitcoin/ether futures to a perpetual structure in response.
Cboe's counter-offensive has been to lean into the space rather than cede it: - Cboe Predicts launched its first products on June 23 — binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP), listed as XSPBW/XSPBX, initially on Interactive Brokers with Charles Schwab access expected in the coming months and other retail brokers to follow. This is a securities-regulated (SEC/OCC-cleared), spread-based structure explicitly designed to differentiate from futures-style binary contracts on Kalshi/Polymarket. - In early July, Cboe filed with the SEC to list "binary KPI options" — cash-settled, European-style contracts tied to more than 100 disclosed corporate metrics (e.g., iPhone shipments, data-center revenue) across roughly 23 companies, extending its event-contract ambitions well beyond index-linked products. - On the Q1 call, management framed event/prediction markets as a decade-long, potentially "enormous" market opportunity where Cboe's securities/futures/clearing infrastructure and OCC-cleared retail distribution give it a structural edge, while conceding the SPX competitive question (from CFTC-regulated binary S&P 500 products) is an active regulatory conversation.
Watch for on the call: updated commentary on Cboe Predicts adoption/volume, Schwab rollout timing, ORF fee reform impact on event-contract pricing, and any incremental disclosure on the crypto-perpetuals product decision.
Cboe is mid-stream in a sweeping cost and portfolio realignment initiated in late 2025: - ~20% workforce reduction announced alongside Q1 earnings, on top of earlier decisions to wind down Japanese equities, exit corporate listings, and shutter its European derivatives (CEDX) business. - Sale of Cboe Canada and Cboe Australia to TMX Group for roughly $409 million, announced April 22, 2026, still pending separate regulatory approvals in each jurisdiction; until closing, both businesses remain consolidated (contributing an estimated $60–70 million of 2026 net revenue and $40–50 million of expense that will exit upon close). - Aggregate annualized expense-saving target now $100–120 million (up from $80–110 million previously), of which only ~$20–25 million of the newest tranche is baked into 2026 guidance — meaning further savings realization is a 2027 story and a potential upside lever to watch for updates on. - Options market share has been ceding ground even as volumes hit records: total options market share fell to 29.1% in Q1 2026 from 31.1% a year earlier, and multi-listed options share fell to 22.3% from 25.0% — a trend worth monitoring for signs of stabilization or further erosion in Q2's release.
Cboe entered the quarter with $2.1 billion of cash/adjusted cash and a leverage ratio near 0.8x, and it has continued to reinforce liquidity: a $400 million five-year unsecured revolving credit facility (upsizeable to $600 million) was signed July 24 to replace its prior facility, and Cboe Clear Europe's €1.7 billion credit facility was extended by a year in late June. The company resumed opportunistic buybacks in Q1 ($45 million) alongside its $0.72/share quarterly dividend, and management has flagged its customary look at a dividend increase in Q3. With Canada/Australia sale proceeds still to come, capital deployment optionality (buybacks, event-market/tokenization investment, clearing expansion) is a live topic for Q2 commentary.
Wall Street sentiment has turned mixed after the spring rally and June selloff: consensus rating sits at roughly "Hold" across ~8–18 covering analysts, with price targets clustering around $305–$312 on average (Barclays cut its target to $347 from $382 in early July while maintaining Overweight; Erste Group downgraded to Hold in early June citing an expected slowdown in trading-volume growth). The stock trades at a ~21–23x forward P/E, above the capital-markets industry average, leaving limited room for a growth disappointment even as fundamentals (record volumes, raised guidance, cost discipline) remain solid.
This preview is based on Cboe's Q1 2026 earnings materials/call, SEC filings, company press releases (May–July 2026), and third-party market/analyst commentary. It is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.