Timing note: Cboe is scheduled to report today, Friday, July 31, 2026, before the market opens—not tomorrow. The conference call begins at 8:30 a.m. ET. (ir.cboe.com)
Cboe enters the report with exceptionally strong trading data, especially in its proprietary index-options franchise. The central question is therefore unlikely to be whether volumes were good; it is whether favorable product mix, pricing and cost reductions can convert those volumes into earnings upside—and whether management raises an already ambitious full-year outlook.
The setup appears constructive for the reported quarter, but expectations are elevated. Investors will probably care more about:
Public estimates center on approximately:
| Metric | Street expectation | 2Q25 actual | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.46-$3.49 | $2.46 | Approximately 41% |
| Net revenue | $716-$721 million | $587.3 million | Approximately 22%-23% |
Kiplinger’s calendar, using data from Refinitiv and S&P Global Market Intelligence, lists an EPS estimate of $3.46. Other public aggregators put net revenue near $716-$721 million and EPS near $3.48-$3.49. (kiplinger.com)
Cboe shares were around $296.50 immediately before the report, up roughly 18% from year-end. However, the stock remains about 19% below its May high after a sharp June selloff and subsequent recovery.
That volatility reflects a conflicted narrative: record operating performance on one side, and questions about emerging competition and the durability of exchange economics on the other.
Cboe has already disclosed unusually strong second-quarter operating statistics:
June finished particularly strongly:
| June operating measure | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|
| Multi-listed options ADV | +40.5% |
| Index-options ADV | +36.8% |
| Futures ADV | +30.5% |
| U.S. equities on-exchange volume | +22.8% |
| U.S. equities off-exchange volume | +103.2% |
| European equities value traded | +26.6% |
| Global FX notional value | +25.5% |
| Cboe Clear Europe cleared trades | +30.5% |
These figures suggest broad support rather than reliance on a single market or product. (ir.cboe.com)
Cboe projected second-quarter total-options revenue per contract, or RPC, of $0.317. That is:
The sequential decline largely reflects multi-listed-options economics and mix: Cboe projected multi-listed RPC of $0.064 versus $0.080 in March, while index-options RPC remained strong at $0.953. (ir.cboe.com)
Using the disclosed 21.9 million quarterly options ADV and projected RPC produces a rough estimate of about $430 million in options net transaction and clearing fees, versus $321.6 million in 2Q25. This is not a formal forecast—reported volumes, mix and accounting can differ—but it illustrates the magnitude of the operating tailwind.
Investor takeaway: Index options should remain the principal earnings engine, but the size of any beat will depend heavily on whether final RPC matches or exceeds Cboe’s preliminary projection.
The most important reported details will be:
SPX is not simply a volume story. It supports transaction fees, market-data sales, connectivity demand and broader participation across Cboe’s ecosystem. In 1Q26, Options represented about 64% of company net revenue, making its monetization the key swing factor for consolidated results. (ir.cboe.com)
Cboe’s first-quarter results were exceptionally strong:
Management also announced a strategic realignment expected to reduce the workforce by approximately 20%. It lowered 2026 adjusted operating-expense guidance to $838-$853 million, including $20-$25 million of savings expected this year. Total annualized savings from the broader realignment are expected to reach $100-$120 million once fully implemented. (ir.cboe.com)
The market will want evidence that:
A clean expense-guidance reduction would probably matter as much as a modest EPS beat.
Data Vantage grew 19% in the first quarter, but management acknowledged that one-time historical-data sales associated with new products contributed to the outperformance. It raised full-year organic Data Vantage growth guidance to the low-double digits, while cautioning that 19% should not necessarily be viewed as a new baseline. (ir.cboe.com)
Investors should separate:
A lower second-quarter growth rate would not necessarily be negative if recurring sales remain healthy. A material reduction in full-year guidance would be more concerning.
Current 2026 guidance calls for:
Cboe agreed to sell its Canadian and Australian exchanges to TMX Group for $300 million. Until those transactions close, their revenue and expenses remain in Cboe’s results and guidance. (ir.cboe.com)
Investors need clarity on:
Given the volume backdrop, a simple guidance reiteration may be received as conservative. An increase in revenue guidance—or another expense reduction—would be the clearest positive signal.
Exchange stocks sold off sharply in early June after regulatory approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures raised concerns that similar products could eventually compete with traditional listed derivatives. Cboe shares fell about 9% on June 2 during the broader exchange selloff. Analysts cited in the report were skeptical that perps would quickly displace institutionally oriented listed futures, but the episode demonstrated that investors are assigning more weight to competitive disruption. (investing.com)
Management will likely be pressed on both defense and offense:
Cboe launched Cboe Predicts during the quarter, initially offering binary options based on the Mini-SPX Index. The launch is strategically important but probably not financially material to second-quarter results given its June 23 introduction. (ir.cboe.com)
The more useful disclosures would be:
Cboe also received approval to offer extended hours for selected multi-listed single-stock options beginning July 13. Because that launch occurred after quarter-end, management’s early read-through should be viewed primarily as a third-quarter indicator. (ir.cboe.com)
Cboe entered the year with substantial financial flexibility. At March 31, adjusted cash was approximately $2.1 billion, leverage was 0.8 times, and the company had about $569 million remaining under its repurchase authorizations. It repurchased $45 million of shares during the first quarter at an average price of $280.20. (ir.cboe.com)
The company also secured a new $400 million revolving credit facility on July 28.
Watch for commentary on:
The underlying quarter appears strong enough to support at least an in-line result, with a reasonable case for upside. Record index and multi-listed-options volumes, higher year-over-year RPC and strong June activity across equities, FX and European markets create a favorable revenue backdrop.
The harder question is whether that strength is already reflected in expectations. With Cboe coming off a $3.70 adjusted-EPS first quarter and having already raised guidance, a small headline beat may not be enough. The most bullish outcome would combine strong options monetization, recurring Data Vantage growth, visible cost savings and another guidance increase.
My pre-report bias is modestly constructive, but the stock reaction is likely to hinge less on the reported quarter than on management’s confidence that current margins and earnings growth remain durable as market conditions normalize and new forms of derivatives competition develop.