Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup leans toward a beat — consensus has been revised sharply higher since Q1 and the macro backdrop (record industry options volumes, strong equity market activity) was broadly favorable in Q2, but the stock's sharp mid-quarter selloff and subsequent partial recovery suggest the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty around the sustainability of Q1's record pace.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for CBOE is elevated but arguably achievable: consensus adjusted diluted EPS of $3.48 represents a ~41% year-over-year increase, and net revenue consensus of $721M implies continued double-digit growth off Q1's record $729M print. Management's tone coming out of Q1 was decidedly bullish — full-year organic revenue growth guidance was raised to low double-digit to mid-teens (from mid single-digit), and adjusted opex guidance was cut — signaling confidence in the structural demand for SPX options and Data Vantage. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance aggressively upward: the Q2 EPS consensus has risen from $3.30 at the post-Q1 baseline to $3.48 today, a ~5.5% upward move that leaves little room for disappointment. The stock, however, tells a more complicated story: CBOE surged to ~$366 in mid-May before a sharp ~33% drawdown to a trough near $231 in late June, driven by what appears to be a combination of multiple compression and concern that Q1's volatility-driven volumes were a one-time spike rather than a durable trend; the stock has since recovered to ~$297, still well below its post-Q1 highs. The key wildcard is SPX options ADV in Q2: peer commentary from Nasdaq (July 23) confirmed record industry options volumes and record derivatives contract volumes up 33% in Q2, which is a strong positive read-through, but MKTX's Q2 results flagged "lower market volatility" as a headwind — the net effect on CBOE's proprietary index options RPC and ADV will be the critical swing factor in the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderately high bar — estimates have been revised up ~5–8% since Q1 earnings across key metrics. SPX index options ADV and RPC are the bigger swing factors; Data Vantage recurring revenue is the more predictable anchor.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Top KPI #1: Adjusted Diluted EPS

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: CBOE has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the magnitude of beats accelerating sharply in recent quarters (Q1 2026: +8.8%, Q3 2025: +5.5%) — a consistent track record that supports a constructive setup, though the elevated bar post-Q1 raises the hurdle.

Top KPI #2: Index Options ADV (K contracts)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: Index options ADV has consistently tracked consensus closely (within ~1%), suggesting the sell-side models this metric well from publicly available monthly volume data. The Q2 2026 consensus of 6,208K implies continued strong growth; the key question is whether the macro-driven surge in non-0DTE options seen in March 2026 sustained into April–June.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance was raised substantially at Q1 2026 earnings (May 1) and has not been formally revised since. No 8-K or conference update has changed the numbers. Management tone remains confident, with the strategic realignment (workforce reduction, Canada/Australia divestiture) proceeding on plan.

¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been revised sharply higher since Q1 earnings across all key metrics, tracking well above the post-Q4 baseline. The Q2 EPS consensus has risen ~5.5% since the post-Q1 baseline, and the FY 2026 EPS consensus is up ~1.8% — revisions are tracking with guidance, not diverging, which is a constructive signal. The gap between current consensus and guidance midpoints is narrow, leaving limited cushion if volumes disappoint.

¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. As-of date May 8, 2026 used as post-Q1 earnings baseline (approximately 5 trading days after May 1, 2026 earnings release).

The most notable revision is in Q2 EPS (+5.5%) and Q2 net revenue (+3.9%), both driven by the market incorporating the strong Q1 momentum and favorable macro backdrop (elevated volatility, record industry options volumes) into Q2 estimates. Data Vantage FY estimates are essentially flat since Q1, consistent with the more predictable, subscription-like nature of that revenue stream.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: CBOE dramatically underperformed both XLF and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, driven by a sharp mid-quarter selloff (peak ~$366 to trough ~$231, a ~37% drawdown) that appears to reflect multiple compression and concern about volume sustainability — not earnings revisions, which moved higher. The partial recovery to ~$297 suggests the market is not fully pricing in a repeat of Q1's record performance.

CBOE vs. XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at May 1, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Stock Price Data.

CBOE surged ~12% in the first two weeks post-Q1 earnings (to ~$366 by May 13), reflecting the record beat and dramatically raised guidance. However, the stock then reversed sharply, falling ~37% from peak to trough (~$231 on June 29), dramatically underperforming XLF (+3% over the same period) and SPY (roughly flat). The selloff appears driven by: (1) concern that Q1's volatility-driven volume surge was not repeatable in a calmer Q2 environment; (2) broader multiple compression as the stock had re-rated to a premium valuation; and (3) uncertainty around the strategic realignment (20% workforce reduction, Canada/Australia divestiture). The stock has since recovered to ~$297 as of July 30, still ~19% below its post-Q1 peak, suggesting the market is pricing in a more moderate Q2 print. XLF has been a strong outperformer over the period (+10%), reflecting the broader financial sector tailwind from rising rates and strong capital markets activity — CBOE's underperformance vs. XLF is notable and suggests company-specific concerns dominate.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the July 24, 2026 refinancing of CBOE's revolving credit facility ($400M, 5-year), which signals financial flexibility and balance sheet confidence heading into the print. No guidance-changing events have occurred since Q1 earnings.

• July 28, 2026 (effective July 24, 2026) — $400M Revolving Credit Facility Refinanced: CBOE entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement providing a senior unsecured $400M five-year revolving credit facility (maturing July 24, 2031), with an accordion option to expand to $600M. Financial covenants include a minimum interest coverage ratio of 4.00x and maximum leverage of 3.50x. Implication: Signals strong balance sheet and lender confidence; provides ample liquidity for opportunistic buybacks and organic investment. Note: effective action date was July 24; Form 8-K filed/disclosed July 28.
• June 26, 2026 (effective June 26, 2026) — Cboe Clear Europe Credit Facility Extended: Cboe Clear Europe's €1.7B credit facility (aggregate commitment €1.2B, accordion to €1.7B) was extended to June 25, 2027 via an Amendment and Restatement Agreement. CBOE acts as guarantor. Implication: Supports continued growth of European clearing operations, including the expanding securities financing transactions (SFT) business. Note: A&R Agreement dated June 23; effective June 26; 8-K filed June 26.
• May 18, 2026 — Annual Shareholder Meeting: Shareholders re-elected the board and rejected a written consent proposal. No material governance changes. Implication: Routine; no impact on near-term earnings.
• May 1, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings & Strategic Realignment Announcement: Record Q1 results (net revenue +29% YoY, adj. EPS +48% YoY). Announced ~20% workforce reduction, return-to-office mandate, and definitive agreement to sell Cboe Canada and Cboe Australia to TMX Group. FY 2026 organic revenue growth guidance raised to low double-digit to mid-teens; adj. opex guidance lowered to $838–$853M. Implication: This remains the dominant narrative heading into Q2 — execution on the realignment and sustainability of volume trends are the key questions.
• April 6, 2026 — CNBC Partnership Launched: Inaugural televised bell ringing on the Cboe floor as part of a new multiyear collaboration with CNBC, joined by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Implication: Brand-building initiative; supports retail investor education and SPX options awareness. Not a near-term revenue driver.
• Ongoing — Event Contracts / Binary Options Strategy: CBOE is pursuing regulatory approval for securities-based event contracts (binary options on Mini SPX / XSP), with a phased roadmap expanding to KPI-based contracts. Nasdaq disclosed at its June 9 conference that it is also engaging the SEC to launch binary options by year-end (starting with NDX complex). Implication: Competitive dynamics in event contracts are intensifying, but CBOE's existing OCC-cleared infrastructure and retail broker distribution give it a first-mover advantage in the securities-based segment.
• Ongoing — ORF Reform: Options Regulatory Fee reform expected in summer 2026, which would provide pricing flexibility for new event contracts and reduce cumulative fee burden as exchange count reaches 20. Implication: Potential positive for CBOE's competitive positioning in multi-listed options and new product launches.

7. Peer Commentaries & Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the past 60 days is broadly constructive for CBOE's Q2 print. Nasdaq's Q2 2026 earnings (July 23) confirmed record industry options volumes and derivatives contract volumes up 33% YoY — the strongest direct read-through. ICE's Q2 results (July 30) confirmed record cash equities and strong derivatives open interest growth. The one cautionary note: MKTX's Q2 results flagged "lower market volatility" as a headwind to transaction revenues, which could weigh on CBOE's RPC.

Methodology note: Only commentary dated May 30 – July 30, 2026 that explicitly addresses Q2 2026 (April–June) activity or post-Q1 forward outlook is included below. Commentary limited to prior-quarter (Q1 2026) results without forward-looking content has been excluded.

7.1 Nasdaq (NDAQ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 23, 2026)

Relevance: HIGHEST. Nasdaq is CBOE's closest peer in U.S. options and cash equities. Q2 2026 results directly confirm industry volume trends for the quarter CBOE is about to report.

Key Q2 2026 observations:

• Record industry volumes across U.S. equities and U.S. options in Q2 2026, with "strong volumes across European equities and fixed income." Market Services achieved record quarterly net revenue of $340M, up 11% YoY.
• "Record volumes for index options, doubling year-over-year revenue for the fourth consecutive quarter." Record derivatives contract volumes up 33% in Q2.
• Specific record events: June 18 triple-witching recorded $296B in notional value traded (largest ever); Russell reconstitution on June 26 set records across the board with $334B notional value traded (more than triple the prior Russell rebalanced record).
• "Strong corporate earnings, strong retail engagement, constructive regulatory backdrop, and AI trade" cited as macro themes playing through Q2.
• Caveat: Nasdaq noted "lower capture in U.S. options, driven by continued mix shift in the composition of order flow" — a potential headwind for CBOE's RPC.
• Nasdaq's index options business grew 60%+ YoY; single-stock 0DTE (Mag Seven, Broadcom, IBIT) showed "additive" liquidity with a 15–20% uptick.

Read-through to CBOE: Strongly positive for SPX index options ADV and overall options net revenue. Record industry volumes and the June 18/26 event-driven spikes should have benefited CBOE's proprietary index options franchise directly. The mix-shift caveat (lower capture) is worth watching for CBOE's RPC, which consensus has at $0.317 vs. Q1's $0.343.

7.2 Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026)

Relevance: HIGH. ICE operates NYSE (cash equities) and a broad derivatives franchise. Q2 2026 results confirm the macro environment and cash equities trends relevant to CBOE's North American Equities and European segments.

Key Q2 2026 observations:

• ICE reported its "best second quarter in company history" with adjusted EPS of $1.90 (second-quarter record). Net revenues of $2.7B, up 5% YoY.
• NYSE transaction revenue was a record, up 15% YoY — strong read-through for CBOE's North American Equities segment.
• Total futures and options open interest up 20% YoY, "signaling the structural engagement we saw in Q1 is carrying forward." Rates business grew 24% YoY, driven by ECB rate hike in June (first since 2023) which caused sharp repricing of rate expectations.
• Euribor options set a new all-time high; Sonia ADV up 39% YoY; Euribor ADV up 12% YoY. Financials open interest momentum carrying into Q3 (up 40%).
• Market data user base grew 10% YoY; exchange data and connectivity services grew 12% — positive read-through for CBOE's Data Vantage segment.
• "Moderation in episodic volatility" explicitly noted — ICE's recurring revenues held up well despite this, but the comment is a cautionary flag for CBOE's VIX-related products.
• ICE integrating Polymarket data into its consolidated feed as an alternative data source for commercial customers.

Read-through to CBOE: Positive for cash equities (NYSE record +15% is a strong signal for CBOE's NA Equities segment) and market data. The "moderation in episodic volatility" comment is the key caveat — if Q2 was characterized by lower event-driven volatility, CBOE's VIX futures/options and non-0DTE SPX options could face headwinds vs. Q1's macro-driven surge. However, ICE's strong open interest growth (+20%) suggests structural demand for derivatives remains intact.

7.3 CME Group (CME) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 22, 2026)

Relevance: MODERATE-HIGH. CME's equity complex and market data trends are relevant to CBOE, though CME's core business (interest rates, commodities, FX futures) is less directly comparable.

Key Q2 2026 observations:

• CME Q2 ADV of 29.8M contracts (second-highest Q2 in history, within 1% of record). May and June were "particularly strong" following a tough April comparison. Open interest ended Q2 up 8% YoY and up 16% YTD.
• Equity complex ADV of 8.6M in Q2, up 13% YoY; June delivered 10.1M contracts, up 54% YoY — strong read-through for equity derivatives demand.
• Market data revenue hit a record $238M, up 20% YoY — 33 consecutive quarters of YoY growth. Professional subscribers grew 3.5% QoQ.
• Event contracts: 140,000+ accounts traded event contracts in Q2 (up 13% QoQ); ADV grew over 4M/day, up 40% vs. Q1. Since launch, ~525M event contracts processed.
• Crypto derivatives suite grew 32% vs. Q2 2025; 24/7 crypto futures trading successfully launched in Q2.
• Q3 2026 volume tracking 18% ahead of last year July-to-date.
• CME launching single-stock futures next week (week of July 22) with 35+ retail partners ready for day one.

Read-through to CBOE: Positive for equity derivatives demand (CME equity complex +13% YoY, June +54%) and market data (record $238M). The event contracts growth (ADV +40% QoQ) is particularly relevant as CBOE is pursuing its own event contract strategy — CME's traction validates the market opportunity. CME's single-stock futures launch is a potential competitive dynamic to watch for CBOE's options franchise, though CME management views these as complementary rather than cannibalistic.

7.4 Nasdaq (NDAQ) — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026)

Relevance: MODERATE. Conference commentary from Nasdaq President Tal Cohen provided real-time observations on April–May 2026 market activity, directly relevant to CBOE's Q2 reporting period.

Key Q2 2026 observations (April–May activity):

• "Strong start to the year across cash equities and options, helped by volatility, retail engagement growth and short-dated options." Through April and May: "strong corporate earnings, strong retail engagement, constructive regulatory backdrop, and AI trade continues to be a strong tailwind."
• Nasdaq's index options business grew 60%+ YoY; single-stock 0DTE (Mag Seven, Broadcom, IBIT) showed "additive" liquidity with a 15–20% uptick.
• Nasdaq received approval for 23/5 trading with a go-live date of December 6, 2026. Currently ~10–11% of ADV occurs after-hours, with ~2% overnight (mostly retail).
• Nasdaq engaging the SEC to launch binary options by year-end, starting with NDX complex ("up-down type contracts").

Read-through to CBOE: Positive for Q2 options volumes — the April–May observations confirm the favorable environment that should have supported CBOE's SPX franchise. The binary options competitive dynamic (Nasdaq targeting year-end launch) is a longer-term consideration, not a Q2 earnings driver.

7.5 ICE — Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference (June 3, 2026)

Relevance: MODERATE. ICE COO Stuart Williams provided current-quarter observations on macro drivers and derivatives trends relevant to CBOE's Q2 environment.

Key Q2 2026 observations:

• "Geopolitical uncertainty and the rewiring of the energy supply chain is driving a lot of volume in our energy markets." Market "reconfiguring around new expectations of rate hikes later in the year" with "diverging set of expectations across the ECB, Fed, and Bank of England."
• Energy open interest up 8% YTD. AI driving increased demand for proprietary data and data center capacity.
• ICE doubled colo capacity since 2020; Hall 5 fully sold out; Hall 6 being sold; new Chicago colo facility for derivatives business "about to announce."
• ICE integrating Polymarket data into consolidated feed as alternative data source.

Read-through to CBOE: The macro backdrop described (geopolitical uncertainty, rate repricing, AI-driven data demand) is broadly supportive of CBOE's derivatives volumes and Data Vantage growth. The rate repricing dynamic (ECB rate hike in June) likely drove increased hedging demand that could benefit CBOE's European operations. Data center/colo demand growth is a positive read-through for CBOE's access and capacity fees.

7.6 MarketAxess (MKTX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 30, 2026)

Relevance: LOW-MODERATE. MKTX is a fixed income electronic trading platform — less directly comparable to CBOE's equity/options franchise, but provides a read on overall market activity and data/services demand.

Key Q2 2026 observations:

• "A quarter marked by lower market volatility and elevated levels of new issuance." Total revenues of $218.4M were "relatively flat compared to the prior year, which benefited from elevated levels of event-driven market volatility."
• Total trading ADV decreased 12% YoY to $43.1B; U.S. government bonds ADV down 22% YoY.
• Services revenue grew 14% YoY to a record $31.5M, driven by 23% growth in information services revenue — positive read-through for CBOE's Data Vantage.
• CEO Chris Concannon noted "50% of our top line revenue is growing double digit and consistently growing, and we see that playing out into Q2 as well" (from June 9 conference).

Read-through to CBOE: The "lower market volatility" characterization is the most important caveat for CBOE — if Q2 was indeed a lower-volatility quarter vs. Q1's macro-driven spike, CBOE's VIX-related products and non-0DTE SPX options could face headwinds. However, MKTX's strong services/data revenue growth (+14%) is a positive read-through for CBOE's Data Vantage segment. The fixed income volume decline is not directly applicable to CBOE's core equity options business.

7.7 MarketAxess (MKTX) — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026)

Relevance: LOW-MODERATE. MKTX CEO provided May 2026 activity data and Q2 forward commentary.

Key Q2 2026 observations (May activity):

• "If you look at May activity, we saw portfolio trading pick up." Block trading in EM up ~35% in May. Portfolio trading market share at 22% in May (vs. 16.8% prior year).
• "Huge new issue in 2026, record levels" driven by AI build demand from hyperscalers. New issuance expected to drive secondary market trading.

Read-through to CBOE: Record new issuance in fixed income suggests a healthy capital markets environment that could support equity market activity and options demand. Limited direct read-through to CBOE's core business.

Peer Read-Through Summary

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Only one insider transaction was disclosed in the post-Q1 window — a 10b5-1 planned sale by Director Janet P. Froetscher in May 2026. This is a pre-scheduled, obligation-driven transaction and carries no negative signal. No open-market discretionary buys or sells were filed, and no clustered selling activity was observed.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Note: Transaction date (May 18) differs from Form 4 filing/disclosure date (May 20). No open-market discretionary buys or sells were filed by any CBOE insider in the May 1 – July 30, 2026 window. The absence of discretionary selling by senior management (CEO Craig Donohue, CFO Jill Griebenow, COO Scott Johnston) following the Q1 record results and raised guidance is a neutral-to-positive signal.