{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.88-0.90 vs. cons $0.89",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic Sales Growth (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.5-4.0% vs. cons ~3.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Gross Margin Expansion (Q2 2026, bps)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+50-60bps vs. cons/guide ~+50bps",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5-8% (~$3.71-$3.81) vs. cons ~$3.76 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic Sales Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3-4% vs. cons ~3.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Middle East/Oil-Related Incremental Cost Inflation Estimate",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$30-40M vs. prior guide $25-30M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Gross Margin Expansion Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~100bps vs. cons ~100bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Touchland Full-Year Growth Commentary",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10%+ (double-digit) vs. cons ~10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 results likely land close to management's unusually precise guide (EPS ~$0.88-0.90, organic ~3-4%, GM +50-60bps), leaving little room for a true beat given CHD's rich ~31x forward multiple, so an initial 'sell-the-news'/de-risking dip is likely on day 1 even if headline EPS tops consensus by a cent. Over the following days, reiteration of FY26 EPS growth (5-8%) and organic (3-4%) guidance, plus continued distribution-share gains and H2-weighted algorithm reassurance, should partially reverse the initial pullback as investors look through the noisy Middle East cost commentary (which is incremental, not guidance-breaking) toward the H2 acceleration story, producing a partial fade of the day-1 move rather than continued downside or a big follow-through rally.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}