| CHRW |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.53 vs. cons $1.49 |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Report |
Total adjusted gross profit |
BEAT |
pred ~$725M vs. cons ~$712M |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Report |
Adjusted income from operations (NAST-led) |
BEAT |
pred ~$245M vs. cons ~$233M |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS target |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirmed ~$6.00 vs. cons $6.08 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Guide |
$604M verdict — litigation reserve / insurance coverage |
UNKNOWN |
reserve likely ~$0–100M booked vs. $604M advisory verdict (post-trial/appeal, no dollar exposure quantified) |
LOW |
| CHRW |
Guide |
FY2026 dry-van spot rate assumption |
BETTER |
guide ~+17% vs. prior +8% (FY2026); supportive of NAST margin defense |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Guide |
Capital returns / buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
pace ~$300M+/qtr vs. ~$360M Q1 (2H26); net debt/EBITDA ~1.3x, likely sustained despite overhang |
LOW |
| CHRW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CHRW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (STABILIZE) |
Operational beat (~$1.53 vs $1.49) into a deeply oversold, ~18% post-verdict drawdown sets up a relief bounce as management stresses the verdict is advisory/appealable and adjusted EPS estimates hold (spot rates well above plan, NAST share gains, Lean AI self-help). But the verdict is excluded from adjusted EPS, so out-period adjusted numbers see little downward revision — the pressure is multiple compression from a genuinely open-ended post-Montgomery liability tail, not EPS cuts. Net: initial bounce partially holds but litigation overhang and cautious PT cuts cap follow-through, leaving a stabilize path rather than clean follow-through or full fade. |
LOW |