CHRW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CHRW Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.53 vs. cons $1.49 MEDIUM
CHRW Report Total adjusted gross profit BEAT pred ~$725M vs. cons ~$712M MEDIUM
CHRW Report Adjusted income from operations (NAST-led) BEAT pred ~$245M vs. cons ~$233M MEDIUM
CHRW Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS target UNCHANGED guide reaffirmed ~$6.00 vs. cons $6.08 (FY2026) MEDIUM
CHRW Guide $604M verdict — litigation reserve / insurance coverage UNKNOWN reserve likely ~$0–100M booked vs. $604M advisory verdict (post-trial/appeal, no dollar exposure quantified) LOW
CHRW Guide FY2026 dry-van spot rate assumption BETTER guide ~+17% vs. prior +8% (FY2026); supportive of NAST margin defense MEDIUM
CHRW Guide Capital returns / buyback pace UNCHANGED pace ~$300M+/qtr vs. ~$360M Q1 (2H26); net debt/EBITDA ~1.3x, likely sustained despite overhang LOW
CHRW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
CHRW Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (STABILIZE) Operational beat (~$1.53 vs $1.49) into a deeply oversold, ~18% post-verdict drawdown sets up a relief bounce as management stresses the verdict is advisory/appealable and adjusted EPS estimates hold (spot rates well above plan, NAST share gains, Lean AI self-help). But the verdict is excluded from adjusted EPS, so out-period adjusted numbers see little downward revision — the pressure is multiple compression from a genuinely open-ended post-Montgomery liability tail, not EPS cuts. Net: initial bounce partially holds but litigation overhang and cautious PT cuts cap follow-through, leaving a stabilize path rather than clean follow-through or full fade. LOW