{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.53 vs. cons $1.49",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total adjusted gross profit",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$725M vs. cons ~$712M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted income from operations (NAST-led)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$245M vs. cons ~$233M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted EPS target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirmed ~$6.00 vs. cons $6.08 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "$604M verdict \u2014 litigation reserve / insurance coverage",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "reserve likely ~$0\u2013100M booked vs. $604M advisory verdict (post-trial/appeal, no dollar exposure quantified)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 dry-van spot rate assumption",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+17% vs. prior +8% (FY2026); supportive of NAST margin defense",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital returns / buyback pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "pace ~$300M+/qtr vs. ~$360M Q1 (2H26); net debt/EBITDA ~1.3x, likely sustained despite overhang",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Operational beat (~$1.53 vs $1.49) into a deeply oversold, ~18% post-verdict drawdown sets up a relief bounce as management stresses the verdict is advisory/appealable and adjusted EPS estimates hold (spot rates well above plan, NAST share gains, Lean AI self-help). But the verdict is excluded from adjusted EPS, so out-period adjusted numbers see little downward revision \u2014 the pressure is multiple compression from a genuinely open-ended post-Montgomery liability tail, not EPS cuts. Net: initial bounce partially holds but litigation overhang and cautious PT cuts cap follow-through, leaving a stabilize path rather than clean follow-through or full fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}