CI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CI Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$7.75 vs. cons $7.59 MEDIUM
CI Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$71.5B vs. cons ~$70.5B MEDIUM
CI Report Cigna Healthcare MCR (higher=worse) IN-LINE pred ~85.3% vs. cons ~85.0% MEDIUM
CI Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS outlook UNCHANGED guide ~≥$30.35 (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$30.55 (FY2026) MEDIUM
CI Guide FY26 Cigna Healthcare MCR range UNCHANGED guide 83.7–84.7% vs. cons ~84.5% (FY2026); Q2 step-up above high end pre-flagged MEDIUM
CI Guide Evernorth FY26 pretax adj. income UNCHANGED guide ~≥$6.9B vs. cons ~$6.9B (FY2026); specialty strong, PBS drag persists LOW
CI Guide eviCore strategic review / ACA exit update UNKNOWN guide n/a vs. cons n/a (2H2026 catalyst); no deal assumed in numbers LOW
CI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
CI Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Likely EPS/revenue beat but FY guide only reaffirmed (~≥$30.35, no raise) in a 'prove-it-then-raise-it' tape — the exact Humana template (7/29 beat, unchanged ≥$9 guide, stock −6%). CI already fell ~1.5% in sympathy on 7/29. Q2 MCR steps above the 84.7% high end and H2 carries PBS/Signature investment spend plus a steeper seasonal MCR curve, so out-period math skews estimates lower even after the beat; Part D subsidy expiry (2027) adds policy overhang. Lower MA exposure and specialty momentum cap downside but do not reverse it, so the negative day-1 reaction drifts further as forward numbers get trimmed. MEDIUM