{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.75 vs. cons $7.59",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$71.5B vs. cons ~$70.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cigna Healthcare MCR (higher=worse)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~85.3% vs. cons ~85.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EPS outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~\u2265$30.35 (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$30.55 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Cigna Healthcare MCR range",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 83.7\u201384.7% vs. cons ~84.5% (FY2026); Q2 step-up above high end pre-flagged",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Evernorth FY26 pretax adj. income",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~\u2265$6.9B vs. cons ~$6.9B (FY2026); specialty strong, PBS drag persists",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "eviCore strategic review / ACA exit update",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide n/a vs. cons n/a (2H2026 catalyst); no deal assumed in numbers",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Likely EPS/revenue beat but FY guide only reaffirmed (~\u2265$30.35, no raise) in a 'prove-it-then-raise-it' tape \u2014 the exact Humana template (7/29 beat, unchanged \u2265$9 guide, stock \u22126%). CI already fell ~1.5% in sympathy on 7/29. Q2 MCR steps above the 84.7% high end and H2 carries PBS/Signature investment spend plus a steeper seasonal MCR curve, so out-period math skews estimates lower even after the beat; Part D subsidy expiry (2027) adds policy overhang. Lower MA exposure and specialty momentum cap downside but do not reverse it, so the negative day-1 reaction drifts further as forward numbers get trimmed.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}