{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Organic sales growth (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.5% vs. cons ~3.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Base Business EPS (Q2)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.97 vs. cons ~$0.96",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Base gross margin (Q2)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~59.4% vs. cons ~59.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 organic sales growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+1% to +4% vs. cons ~+3% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 base EPS growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide low-to-mid-single-digit (~+4%) vs. cons ~+4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 gross margin outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~'down' (~-30 to -50 bps) vs. cons ~-40 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "North America organic sales (sequential inflection)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~-0.5% vs. cons ~0% (Q2 sequential from -2.2% Q1)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "EPS/organic likely in-line-to-modestly-above, but the gross-margin decline as commodity inflation peaks and a stretched ~24x multiple after an ~18% YTD run tilt the reaction to 'good but not good enough.' A held (not raised) EPS range with an explicitly lower margin line keeps out-period estimates drifting slightly lower, but CL's defensive quality, FX tailwind and dividend/buyback support limit further downside, so an initial negative move stabilizes rather than cascading.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}