Report Date: Monday, August 3, 2026, after market close (call at 4:15 p.m. ET remarks / earnings call to follow) Fiscal Quarter: Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)
CLX shares have been in a well-defined downtrend since a February 2026 peak near $127, falling roughly 25% to the $95–100 range where they've traded into earnings. The proximate catalyst was the Q3 FY26 report on April 30, which triggered a same-week decline of roughly 10% after management cut full-year guidance. Shares have since stabilized but remain well below where they started the year, with a 52-week range of about $84.70–$128.68.
Sell-side sentiment has turned decidedly more cautious in the run-up to this print. In the past two weeks, Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy (price target cut to $98 from $125), and other desks have trimmed targets as well — JPMorgan to $92 (Underweight), Evercore ISI to $98, while Barclays ($86) and Goldman Sachs ($83) maintain Sell ratings. A few, like Deutsche Bank ($94, up from $91), have nudged targets modestly higher. Consensus leans toward a cautious "Hold."
Zacks/Street consensus for the quarter: revenue of ~$1.91 billion (down ~4.1% YoY) and EPS of ~$1.64 (down ~42.9% YoY from $2.87 a year ago). Full-year FY26 consensus adjusted EPS sits at roughly $5.52–$5.53, squarely within — but near the low end of — management's own $5.45–$5.65 guidance range. Analysts signaled that Clorox is expected to report June-quarter earnings of US$1.64 per share, a year-over-year decline of 42.9%, on revenues of US$1.91 billion, down 4.1%, with limited indications of an earnings beat, combined with a weak Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank of 4, highlighting growing skepticism around the strength of Clorox's near-term profit trajectory. Clorox has historically been a beat-prone name — the company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average — but the setup into this print looks more mixed than usual.
The current guidance and bearish tone trace directly to the Q3 (March quarter) report. Net sales were flat at $1.67 billion and organic sales fell 1%, while gross margin contracted 140 bps to 43.2%. CEO Linda Rendle characterized the quarter bluntly: "our third quarter results were mixed... and fell short of our expectations," citing slower-than-anticipated share recovery in certain categories and gross margin pressure from higher supply-chain costs and delayed cost savings tied to the now-completed ERP rollout.
Three forces converged to force a guidance cut: 1. A ~7.5-point organic sales headwind from the reversal of prior-year "channel stuffing" ahead of the ERP cutover (retailers built ~2 weeks of extra inventory in Q4 FY25 that is now unwinding). 2. GOJO Industries integration — the acquisition closed April 1, adding ~$800M of B2B-weighted (80%+) revenue growing mid-single digits, but bringing lower gross margins, higher SG&A, one-time inventory step-up costs (~150 bps of Q4 gross margin drag, non-repeating), and incremental interest expense (~$30M in Q4 alone, ~$110M annualized above the prior ~$100M run rate). 3. A fresh oil-price/Middle East conflict headwind of $20–25 million in Q4 alone (~130 bps of gross margin), which management said would hit with essentially no mitigation yet deployed.
Current FY26 guidance (as of April 30, unchanged pending tomorrow's update): net sales down ~6% (including ~3 points from GOJO), organic sales down ~9%, gross margin down 250–300 bps, diluted EPS of $4.78–$4.98, and adjusted EPS of $5.45–$5.65.
Gross margin — the single biggest swing factor. Q3's shortfall was almost entirely a margin story (higher logistics/manufacturing costs, delayed productivity savings, oil-driven input inflation, GOJO dilution). Street models currently look for gross margin near 41%, a steep ~500+ bps YoY decline once GOJO's one-time inventory step-up and the Middle East energy headwind are layered in. A print that clears management's prior commentary (mid-40s%) with the one-time GOJO and ERP-lapping items confirmed as truly non-repeating would be read as evidence the FY27 cost story is manageable; a miss reopens debate about how much of this pressure is structural.
Category-level progress on the "problem children": - Fresh Step / Cat Litter — undergoing a full brand reinvention (new UPCs, claims, pack sizes, price architecture). Management called this the primary source of Q3's shortfall, citing shelf-placement issues and SKU-conversion out-of-stocks even as distribution point gains (TDPs +5% company-wide in Q3) came in as planned. Watch for commentary on whether velocity is finally converting shelf gains into share. - Food / Hidden Valley Ranch — category demand was weaker than expected (mid-single-digit decline vs. a low-single-digit decline assumption), pressured by deep competitor discounting and GLP-1-related consumption shifts. Clorox reversed a prior packaging change (bringing back the traditional 16oz bottle) and layered in new "trend forward" launches (Avocado Oil, protein-forward Ranch); the segment did return to share growth in Q3. - Glad — a multi-year underperformer that management says is inflecting via revenue growth management (RGM)/price actions and stronger innovation, with sequential share improvement. - Cleaning / Clorox PURE / International — areas of relative strength; PURE (allergen platform) velocities were said to be running above expectations, and International grew net sales 8% (organic sales +2%) in Q3.
GOJO contribution and synergy tracking. GOJO was expected to add roughly $200 million of revenue in Q4 (about 10 points of quarterly growth), with management targeting at least $50 million of run-rate cost synergies starting in years two and three. Investors will want an update on integration progress, retention of the GOJO management team, and whether the deal stays on track to be EBITDA-neutral in year one.
Initial FY2027 guidance. This is arguably the most important element of the print, since management explicitly deferred FY27 framing on the Q3 call pending more clarity on oil/commodity costs, tariffs, and category recovery. Investors should watch for: (1) the assumed trajectory for input costs/oil given the Middle East conflict, (2) pricing and RGM plans to offset inflation, (3) the pace of category normalization as the ERP-related distortions fully roll off, and (4) a full-year view of GOJO's margin and synergy contribution.
Several non-operating developments since the last earnings call add uncertainty (and some intrigue) to tomorrow's report:
Bulls point to depressed multiples: CLX trades at roughly 16x forward earnings, below the household-products peer average and well below the broader consumer staples peer group, with some discounted cash flow models suggesting the stock is undervalued by around 30%. Bears counter that FY27 visibility is limited given unresolved oil/commodity cost trends, a leadership vacuum at the top, ongoing category share losses in litter and food, and a more leveraged balance sheet post-GOJO — all of which argue for a "show me" stance until the cost and share-recovery story is proven out over consecutive quarters.
This is a "prove it" quarter. The bar has already been reset lower (both by management's own guidance cut and by consensus estimates implying a ~43% EPS decline), so the more important signals will likely be qualitative: whether gross margin stabilizes as promised now that the ERP transition is complete, whether Fresh Step's brand reset is finally converting shelf gains into velocity, how GOJO integration and synergy capture are tracking, and — critically — what framework management lays out for FY2027 amid oil-price volatility, tariff risk, and a leadership transition still in progress. Given the magnitude of the headline EPS decline already expected, the market's reaction is likely to hinge less on whether Clorox "beats" a depressed number and more on the tone and specificity of FY27 guidance and any update on the CEO search.