| CMG |
Report |
Comparable sales |
BEAT |
pred ~+1.8% vs. cons +1.3% |
LOW |
| CMG |
Report |
Restaurant-level margin |
MISS |
pred ~24.4% vs. cons ~25.0% |
MEDIUM |
| CMG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.32 vs. cons $0.32 |
MEDIUM |
| CMG |
Guide |
FY2026 comparable sales framework |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~flat/0% vs. cons ~+0.9% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CMG |
Guide |
FY2026 new restaurant openings |
UNCHANGED |
guide 350-370 vs. cons ~360 (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CMG |
Guide |
2H margin cadence (does pressure ease in Q4) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~25% 2H restaurant margin vs. cons ~25.5% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| CMG |
Guide |
Transaction growth trajectory |
BETTER |
guide ~+1% transactions vs. cons ~+0.7% (Q2/2H 2026) |
LOW |
| CMG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
LOW |
| CMG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.5% (FADE) |
Even if comp/transactions modestly beat the low ~1.3% bar (lapping -4.0%), the debate is margin: a restaurant-margin miss (~24.4% vs ~25%) plus a maintained 'about flat' FY guide after two positive quarters implies 2H deceleration/continued pricing-below-inflation. Out-period math forces analysts to trim EPS despite the comp inflection, and sentiment is fragile after a ~17% bounce off June lows into the print. Expect an initial mixed-to-negative reaction that fades further over 5 days as estimate revisions skew down and the 'show-me' crowd stays sidelined absent a credible Q4 margin-inflection message. |
LOW |