I'll research CMG before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings materials, news, and price data.I have the consensus. Let me read the most recent Q1 2026 earnings call and release, plus the year-ago Q2 2025 quarter for comparison.Let me get the stock price history and the most recent Q4 2025 results for full-year guidance context.I now have everything I need. Let me write the preview.
Report date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (after market close) · Call: 4:30 PM ET · Prior close (7/28): ~$33.52
Chipotle heads into Q2 as a "show-me" story. After a rough 2025 (full-year comps -1.7%, the first negative year in the post-COVID era), management rolled out its "Recipe for Growth" strategy and, in Q1 2026, delivered its first positive quarter in a while (+0.5% comp, +0.6% transactions). The stock, however, has not been rewarded — it's down roughly 36% over the past year and trades near multi-year lows (52-week range ~$28–$58, split-adjusted). This quarter is the market's first look at whether the Q1 inflection is real and accelerating, or whether Chipotle remains a low-single-digit comp, margin-pressured business. The key tension: improving traffic momentum vs. a compressing margin structure as the company deliberately under-prices inflation.
| Metric | Q2 2025 (actual) | Q2 2026 Street consensus | Mgmt commentary (from Q1 call) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comparable sales | -4.0% | ~+1.3% | "~+1%" guided; noted upside |
| Transactions | -4.9% | positive | return to positive traffic |
| Restaurant-level margin | 27.4% | ~25.0% (down ~240 bps) | pressure concentrated in 1H |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.33 | ~$0.32 (down ~3.5%) | — |
| Menu pricing | +0.9% | — | ~1.5% in Q2 |
Per the pre-print consensus, the Street expects comp growth of just ~1.3%, restaurant margins down ~240 bps YoY, and EPS around $0.32, down ~3.5% year-over-year.
Why the low bar matters: CMG is lapping its weakest quarter of 2025 (-4.0% comp). A ~+1% print is a soft two-year stack, so watch the trajectory and transaction number more than the headline.
Management framed 2026 as a year where more frequent LTOs and protein windows each lift the two-year trend and the boost persists after the promo ends. On the Q1 call they effectively confirmed the base case is for comps to climb through the year if the consumer holds.
Key demand drivers active in Q2: - Chipotle Honey Chicken relaunched late April (one of their highest order-rate LTOs). - Cilantro-Lime Sauce — outperforming Red Chimichurri (their prior best sauce) with ~2x incidence; drove a "nice step-up" in April. - High-protein line — add-on protein reached ~25% of transactions and stayed elevated. - Rewards relaunch — ~25% jump in daily enrollees; loyalty hit 32% of sales in Q1 (+300 bps YoY).
Bull case: April momentum + Honey Chicken + rewards = comp beat vs. the ~1% guide (management repeatedly flagged conservatism given the "dynamic consumer environment"). Bear/watch item: Management noted softening in March around the Iran conflict/gas prices. Any macro-driven traffic wobble in May/June would undercut the acceleration narrative.
This is where the report can disappoint even on a comp beat. Management has been explicit that 1H 2026 is peak margin pressure, by design: - Pricing below inflation: ~1.5% price in Q2 vs. mid-single-digit cost-of-sales inflation. Full-year food inflation guided ~4%. - Cost of sales guided up sequentially to ~30% of sales in Q2 — beef, dairy, and avocado are the culprits (avocado a swing factor tied to the Mexican crop and tariffs). - Labor guided to the low-25% range; other operating costs to high-14%; marketing ~low-3% (elevated to support four LTOs).
Q1's restaurant-level margin was 23.7% (adjusted), down 250 bps YoY. The Q2 year-ago comp is a high 27.4%, so a ~240 bps decline to ~25% is baked into consensus. The debate: will management reiterate that the price/inflation gap narrows in 2H (as they lap elevated beef costs and pricing ticks up)? A credible "margins inflect in Q4" message matters more than the Q2 margin itself.
FY2026 guidance stands at: - Comps about flat (management admitted they were "trending higher" but kept it conservative) - 350–370 new restaurant openings (incl. 10–15 international partner-operated; ~80% of company units with a Chipotlane) - Tax rate 24–26%
With Q1 at +0.5% and Q2 guided ~+1%, a "flat" full-year guide implies either continued conservatism or an expected 2H softening. An explicit raise (or a confident 2H acceleration message) would be a positive catalyst; a maintained "about flat" guide after two positive quarters may read as cautious.
The balance sheet is strong (no debt; ~$1B cash/investments at Q1). CMG has been an aggressive buyer of its own depressed stock — $2.4B repurchased in 2025 at an avg ~$42.54 and $701M in Q1 2026 at ~$36.14, with ~$1B remaining on authorization at quarter-end. With the stock now in the low-$30s, expect continued heavy buybacks supporting EPS. Note the share count is steadily declining (diluted shares ~1.32B in Q4'25 vs. ~1.38B a year earlier).
The single most important number: transaction growth. Chipotle's entire turnaround thesis rests on getting traffic — not price — to drive comps. Q1's +0.6% transactions was the proof-of-concept; Q2 needs to show it's building, not fading.
Note: All share prices reflect the 2024 50-for-1 split. Nothing here is investment advice.