CMG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CMG Report Comparable restaurant sales growth (Q2 2026 YoY) BEAT pred ~1.6% vs. cons 1.3% MEDIUM
CMG Report Restaurant-level operating margin (Q2 2026, YoY change) MISS pred ~-260bps YoY vs. cons -240bps YoY MEDIUM
CMG Report Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.33 vs. cons $0.32 MEDIUM
CMG Guide Full-year 2026 comparable sales guidance BETTER guide ~1.0% vs. cons ~0.7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CMG Guide Q3 2026 comparable sales outlook (implied/verbal guide) BETTER guide ~2.0% vs. cons ~1.5% (Q3 2026) LOW
CMG Guide Full-year 2026 cost inflation / cost of sales guide UNCHANGED guide ~4% vs. cons ~4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CMG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.0% MEDIUM
CMG Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (FADE) A modest comp/EPS beat off a de-risked setup (stock already down ~8.5% into the print) and a slight FY comp guide raise should spark a relief pop similar to the +3% reaction after Q1's beat, especially with the stock trading well below the $42+ average target. But restaurant margin likely still misses on beef/avocado/dairy cost inflation, and the implied H2 acceleration needed to hit even a modestly raised comp guide sets a high bar; sell-side will likely trim out-quarter EPS/margin estimates on the cost trajectory even after the top-line beat, capping follow-through and pulling the move back toward roughly half its initial size by day 5. LOW