CMG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CMG Report Comparable sales growth BEAT pred ~1.7% vs. cons 1.3% MEDIUM
CMG Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.33 vs. cons $0.32 MEDIUM
CMG Report Restaurant-level margin MISS pred ~24.7% vs. cons 25.0% MEDIUM
CMG Guide FY26 comparable-sales outlook LOWER guide ~0.0% vs. cons 0.5% (FY26) MEDIUM
CMG Guide FY26 food-cost inflation outlook LOWER guide ~4.5% vs. cons 4.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
CMG Guide FY26 new restaurant openings LOWER guide ~350 vs. cons 360 (FY26) LOW
CMG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
CMG Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~1.7% comp versus 1.3% and ~$0.33 EPS versus $0.32 can clear the reported bar, but ~24.7% margin versus 25.0% plus a ~0.0% FY26 comp guide versus 0.5% consensus implies out-period EPS cuts; the initial ~-3.5% residual move is therefore likely to extend toward ~-6.0% by day five. MEDIUM