CMG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker	Report or Guide	KPI	Prediction	Answer	Confidence
CMG	Report	Same-store sales (Q2 2026)	BEAT	pred ~+1.8% vs. cons +1.37%	MEDIUM
CMG	Report	Restaurant-level margin (Q2 2026)	MISS	pred ~24.6% vs. cons 25.01%	MEDIUM
CMG	Report	Adj. EPS (Q2 2026)	MISS	pred ~$0.315 vs. cons $0.320	MEDIUM
CMG	Guide	SSS — FY 2026	LOWER	guide ~flat vs. cons +1.46%	HIGH
CMG	Guide	Restaurant-level margin — FY 2026	LOWER	guide ~23.5-23.7% vs. cons 23.90%	MEDIUM
CMG	Guide	SSS — Q3 2026	UNCHANGED	guide ~+1.0-1.5% vs. cons +1.34%	MEDIUM
CMG	Return	Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500)	+2.5%	—	MEDIUM
CMG	Return	5-day cumulative residual	-1.5% (FADE)	FADE — FY guide math pulls H2 estimates lower post-pop	MEDIUM