| CMS |
Report |
Q2 2026 adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.73 vs. cons $0.70 |
MEDIUM |
| CMS |
Report |
Q2 2026 revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.95B vs. cons ~$1.90B |
LOW |
| CMS |
Report |
H1 2026 cumulative adjusted EPS (Q1 $1.13 + Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.86 vs. cons ~$1.83 |
MEDIUM |
| CMS |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS guide (reaffirm toward high end) |
UNCHANGED |
guide $3.83-3.90 (high end ~$3.90) vs. cons $3.87 (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CMS |
Guide |
Long-term adjusted EPS growth rate |
UNCHANGED |
guide 6-8% off high end (~7%) vs. cons ~7% (long-term/FY2027 $4.16) |
HIGH |
| CMS |
Guide |
Hyperscaler data-center contract signing (swing factor) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~1 GW signed = $2-5B capex vs. current $24B plan (2028+ ramp) |
LOW |
| CMS |
Guide |
New electric rate case ask / June IRP capex upside |
UNKNOWN |
guide growth-scenario capex >$24B vs. current $24B 5-yr plan |
LOW |
| CMS |
Guide |
2026 weather-normalized sales growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide 2-3% (~2.5%) vs. cons ~2.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CMS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.6% |
— |
LOW |
| CMS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (STABILIZE) |
Base case is a modest beat (NorthStar/O&M, 5th straight beat) plus a clean high-end reaffirm, so out-period estimates hold rather than get cut — the telegraphed summer weather give-back is offset by ~$0.24 regulatory variance, keeping FY2026 ~$3.87-3.90 intact. No implicit cut means the day-1 pop neither fully fades nor accelerates; residual drifts flat-to-slightly-positive. Real upside optionality is a signed hyperscaler contract / IRP growth-scenario capex, which would push toward FOLLOW-THROUGH; absent that it stabilizes as a defensive reg-utility. |
LOW |